Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. (HOV)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$122.79+1.30%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HOV
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $123, HOV's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 54× p/e (3.6× the 15× p/e peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~-61% near-term growth vs our ~4% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $316 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $315.61 | 10.4 | 39.81 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $681.00 | 16.1 | 42.33 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $34.31 | 15.1 | 2.27 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $361.46 | 0.8 | 440.31 | TTM | high |
| triangulated |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $36.53 |
| 15.1 |
| 2.42 |
| Triangulated |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $914.12 | 16.1 | 56.82 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $322.83 | 15.1 | 21.36 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $385.04 | 0.8 | 469.03 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $1112.34 | 16.1 | 69.14 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $328.08 | 15.1 | 21.70 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $391.30 | 0.8 | 476.66 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |