Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
HighPeak Energy, Inc. (HPK)
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$7.14-5.68%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HPK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Keep capital spending between $255M and $285M in 2026 | HighPeak aims to keep capital spending near $270 million in 2026. | Intact | CAPEX exceeds $285M in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $110.315M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $255M to $285M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jun 30, 2026110,315,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
HPK is a high-risk, loss-making energy business with a sector tailwind, not yet a proven durable compounder. Its long-term thesis is currently intact, though the evidence is mixed and confidence is medium.
HPK screens cheap versus peers, and the pricing evidence says the current setup is justified rather than reflecting an extreme combination of weak execution and sector pressure. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding, but the evidence does not spell out exactly what the market assumes.
Near term, the run of earnings misses and the most recent missed quarter make another weak result or guidance cut a meaningful risk. Management is on track with capital spending, while well activity is mixed; net income improved from a first-quarter loss to a second-quarter profit, but the overall earnings-quality assessment remains fragile.
The multi-year view depends on continued cost control, disciplined capital spending, and progress toward the 2026 well target. Near term, a guidance cut would weaken the case, while continued strong results and guidance from energy peers such as COP, EOG, and OXY would support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, HPK’s thesis rests on turning recent operating improvement into more dependable earnings while managing high risk. The sector offers support, but a run of misses leaves execution and guidance as the main tests. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company is cutting costs to improve net income. |
| Improving |
| Net loss worsens beyond -$127.4M over next 4 quarters |
Net income: $82.275M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Reduce net loss from -$127.4M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 10, 202682,275,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operate 36 to 38 wells in 2026 | A primary condition in HighPeak Energy, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 36 to 38 wells. | Intact | Operated wells fall below 36 in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.36 → $0.18 · observed estimates
$0.76B → $0.80B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.36 | $755,633,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.36 | $755,633,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.36 | $755,633,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.36 | $755,633,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.36 | $755,633,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.22 | $777,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.22 | $777,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.22 | $777,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.36 | $755,633,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.36 | $755,633,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.36 | $755,633,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.22 | $777,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.22 | $777,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.22 | $777,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.36 | $755,633,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.22 | $777,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.22 | $777,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.36 | $755,633,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.22 | $777,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.36 | $755,633,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.36 | $755,633,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.36 | $755,633,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.36 | $755,633,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.36 | $755,633,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.36 | $755,633,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.36 | $755,633,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.44 | $775,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.44 | $775,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.44 | $775,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.44 | $775,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.44 | $775,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.44 | $775,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.44 | $775,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.44 | $775,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.44 | $775,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.44 | $775,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.44 | $775,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.44 | $775,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.44 | $775,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.44 | $775,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.44 | $775,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.44 | $775,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.44 | $775,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.44 | $775,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.44 | $775,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.44 | $775,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.44 | $775,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.44 | $775,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.44 | $775,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.44 | $775,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.44 | $775,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.44 | $775,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.44 | $775,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.44 | $775,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.44 | $775,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.41 | $757,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.41 | $757,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.41 | $757,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.41 | $757,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.41 | $757,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.41 | $757,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.41 | $757,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.41 | $757,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.41 | $757,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.41 | $757,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.41 | $757,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.41 | $757,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.41 | $757,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.41 | $757,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.49 | $720,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.49 | $720,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.49 | $720,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.49 | $720,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.49 | $720,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.49 | $720,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.37 | $720,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.13 | $776,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.13 | $776,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.13 | $776,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.13 | $776,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.13 | $776,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.13 | $776,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.13 | $776,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.18 | $798,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.18 | $798,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.18 | $798,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.18 | $798,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.18 | $798,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.18 | $798,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.18 | $798,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.18 | $798,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.18 | $798,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.18 | $798,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.18 | $798,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.18 | $798,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.18 | $798,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.18 | $798,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.18 | $798,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.18 | $798,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.18 | $798,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.18 | $798,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.18 | $798,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.18 | $798,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.