HighPeak Energy, Inc. (HPK)
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$7.14-5.68%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HPK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -46.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -6.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 40.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 16 industry peers
HPK — dividend update
Dated 2026-10-06
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On October 6, 2026 (the “Signing Date”), HighPeak Energy, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into (x) a Securities Purchase Agreement, with PT Danantara Energy International (“DEI”), a subsidiary of PT Danantara Investment Management pursuant to which DEI has agreed to purchase from the Company 250,000 shares of a newly created series of convertible preferred stock, designated as Series A 6.0% Perpetual Convertible Preferred Stock (the “Series A Preferred…
Why it matters: The company says the deal will cut its financing burden. Final loan terms and reported interest costs can test that claim.
Supportive ifFinal loan documents or company results show annual interest costs are below those for the old term loan.
Worry ifFinal loan terms or company results show no drop in annual interest costs, or show higher costs.
Why it matters: First-half operating expenses were 13% below guidance midpoint. Keeping costs low can support cash flow as the year progresses.
Supportive ifThe Nov. 9 results show first-half operating expenses still at least 13% below the midpoint of full-year guidance.
Worry ifThe Nov. 9 results show first-half operating expenses at or above the midpoint pace for full-year guidance.
Why it matters: HighPeak set a goal of bringing 36 to 38 wells online this year. The next report can show whether its pace is on track.
Supportive ifThe Nov. 9 results show year-to-date wells brought online at a pace that reaches 36 to 38 by year-end.
Worry ifThe results show year-to-date well starts that leave the company below a 36-well year-end pace.
Why it matters: HighPeak reported 45.3 MBoe/d in Q2, above its guidance midpoint. A sharp drop would weaken evidence of steady well output.
Worry ifThe Nov. 9 results report Q3 sales volume below 45 MBoe/d.
Less concerning ifThe Nov. 9 results report Q3 sales volume at or above 45 MBoe/d.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$268 on $10,000 · ±2.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $938 loss on $10,000 · 9.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,346 loss on $10,000 · 43.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.