HighPeak Energy, Inc. (HPK)
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$8.05-2.90%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HPK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -59.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -7.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 51.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 38 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HPK — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-10
of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to liabilities of that section, and is not incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act unless specifically identified therein as being incorporated therein by reference.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it may signal a positive shift in company momentum.
Supportive ifRevenue growth rises above 2% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains at or below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: Lower free cash flow may hurt the company's ability to improve finances.
Worry ifFree cash flow in Q2 is below $20 million, indicating cash management issues.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow in Q2 exceeds $20 million, showing strong cash generation.
Why it matters: HighPeak needs to operate the right number of wells. This is key for growth.
Supportive ifHighPeak operates between 36 and 38 wells by year-end 2026.
Worry ifHighPeak runs fewer than 36 wells. This shows problems in growing the business.
Why it matters: Operating this number of wells shows growth strategy success. It impacts future revenue.
Supportive ifCompany reports operating at least 36 wells by Q4 2026.
Worry ifCompany operates fewer than 36 wells by Q4 2026.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$295 on $10,000 · ±2.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $921 loss on $10,000 · 9.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,776 loss on $10,000 · 47.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Earnings results show how well the company is doing now and in the future.
Watch forEarnings report shows a profit or improvement in key metrics.
Also watch forEarnings report shows a loss or further decline in key metrics.
Why it matters: Lower capital spending shows careful spending. This helps generate cash flow.
Supportive ifCapital spending is below $75 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifCapital spending is above $75 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Staying within this range shows the company's commitment to capital discipline. It affects future growth and financial health.
Supportive ifHighPeak Energy reports CAPEX within the $255M to $285M range for 2026.
Worry ifCAPEX was outside the $255M to $285M range. This shows poor capital discipline.
Why it matters: Better net income shows better financial health. It also shows better operations.
Supportive ifNet income for Q2 2026 shows improvement, moving closer to breakeven.
Worry ifNet income is still negative or gets worse. This shows ongoing financial issues.
Why it matters: A drop in net income may show ongoing profit challenges.
Worry ifNet income for Q3 is reported below $82.3 million.
Less concerning ifNet income for Q3 exceeds $82.3 million.
Why it matters: Better net income shows progress in financial health. It also means better operations.
Supportive ifNet income improves to less than -$100 million. This shows better financial performance.
Worry ifNet income stays at -$127.4 million or worsens. This signals ongoing financial struggles.
Why it matters: Higher capital spending may show a lack of careful spending.
Worry ifTotal capital spending is over $285 million for 2026.
Less concerning ifTotal capital spending stays under $255 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Having a positive net income means the company makes more money. It also shows the company runs well.
Supportive ifNet income remains positive in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNet income turns negative in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: What management thinks can show changes in plans or how they expect to perform.
Watch forManagement shows they believe in future growth or new plans.
Also watch forManagement seems worried about how the company will do in the future. They are concerned about market conditions.
Why it matters: Staying within this range shows financial discipline and supports long-term growth plans.
Supportive ifCapital spending for 2026 is between $255 million and $285 million.
Worry ifCapital spending is over $285 million. This may show financial issues.
Why it matters: Improving net income is crucial for the company's financial health. It affects investor confidence and future funding.
Supportive ifHighPeak Energy expects a net income of more than -$127.4 million in future quarters.
Worry ifNet income gets worse or stays at -$127.4 million or worse. This shows ongoing financial issues.
Why it matters: Higher costs can hurt profits and cash flow.
Worry ifOperating expenses for Q3 exceed $17.02 per Boe.
Less concerning ifOperating expenses for Q3 remain below $17.02 per Boe.
Why it matters: Higher production volumes show good operations. This helps revenue grow.
Supportive ifProduction volumes exceed 45 MBoe/d in Q3 2026.
Worry ifProduction volumes fall below 45 MBoe/d in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Higher free cash flow shows strong cash generation. This helps financial stability.
Supportive ifFree cash flow for Q2 2026 exceeds $20 million, reflecting strong cash generation.
Worry ifFree cash flow falls below $10 million, raising concerns about cash management.
Why it matters: Higher prices would increase revenue and help profits during price changes.
Supportive ifQ3 average crude oil prices were above $70 per Bbl. This shows good market conditions.
Worry ifQ3 average crude oil prices were below $60 per Bbl. This suggests market weakness.