Reading HQY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HQY free→Reading HQY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HQY free→NASDAQHealth CareHealth Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. However, risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, HQY is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $88.34. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $88 HQY trades at 21× p/e, in line with its 19× p/e peer median. Our $83 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $85–$111. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 6% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.12x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated robust grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.19 → $1.19 (+0.0% / 30d). 6 raised, 6 cut, 15 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 94% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 24.2% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$146.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$359.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,057.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key to HealthEquity's growth model. A drop signals weakening demand.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 7% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains at or above 7% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HQY yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 28, 2026, HealthEquity, Inc. issued a press release attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report on Form 8-K. The information in Exhibit 99.1 is being furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$85.00 – $111.00 (median $108.00) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-06-03
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3, 2027-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Managed Health Care.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HQY HealthEquity | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | full | elevated |
UNH UnitedHealth Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ELV Elevance Health | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
HUM Humana | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | full | elevated |
CNC Centene Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 35 of 100 | full | elevated |
Not enough signal yet.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to achieve revenue between $1.41 billion and $1.42 billion for fiscal year 2027.
Management targets Adjusted EBITDA between $625 million and $633 million for fiscal year 2027.
Management aims to increase EPS to between $2.88 and $2.95 for fiscal year 2027.
The board authorized an additional $1.0 billion for the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Net income per share is a key measure of profitability. A drop indicates financial stress.
Confirms:Net income per diluted share reported at or above $0.82.
Disproves:Net income per diluted share falls below $0.82.
Why it matters: Better performance in the sector could help HealthEquity grow more.
Confirms:Sector performance improves to better than -1% over the next 60 days.
Disproves:Sector performance worsens beyond -2% over the next 60 days.
Why it matters: A stable or better margin shows that the company runs well and is financially strong.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA margin was over 46% for Q2.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 46% for Q2.
Why it matters: News about the share buyback program shows that management trusts the business.
Confirms:They announced more share buybacks beyond the $1 billion allowed.
Disproves:No updates or reductions in the share repurchase program.