Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
H&R Block (HRB)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$55.01-0.83%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.92 → 6.90 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HRB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS near $5.15 next quarter | Analysts expect stable earnings near $5.15 per share next quarter. | Intact | EPS guidance falls below $4.85 next quarter | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a mature tax-preparation business with a value-oriented profile, rather than a high-growth story. Its long-term thesis is supported by management execution, while the current watch status reflects recent performance below its industry cohort and medium confidence.
HRB is described as cheap versus peers, and the evidence rates its pricing as justified with low fragility, meaning no flagged conditions point to unusually fragile expectations. The expectations gap is slightly negative, so the valuation evidence does not suggest that expectations are especially favorable.
Near-term results may remain uneven: recent earnings reports were positive, but the company’s financial performance still trails its industry cohort, and a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback. Across the multi-year view, revenue, continuing-operations income, and operating cash flow have improved, in line with management’s stated priorities.
The next key test is whether HRB maintains guidance, since a cut could weaken the thesis. Sector peers also matter: continued earnings strength and higher guidance could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis rests on continued delivery in revenue and profitability, balanced against elevated risk and weaker relative performance. The valuation appears cheap versus peers, but the outlook remains on watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit rose to $1.02 billion in Q3 2026. |
| Intact |
| Operating income falls below $958 million next year |
Operating income: $376.772M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.02 billion. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 14, 2026376,772,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth at or above 5% YoY | A primary condition in H&R Block's published investment case. The stated target is >=5% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 3% next year | Revenue growth: 3.05% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=5% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 14, 20263.047495 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.74 → $6.90 · observed estimates
$4.20B → $4.31B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.74 | $4,195,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.74 | $4,195,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.74 | $4,195,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.74 | $4,195,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.74 | $4,195,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.74 | $4,195,064,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.22 | $4,176,867,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.22 | $4,176,867,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.22 | $4,176,867,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.22 | $4,176,867,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.22 | $4,176,867,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.22 | $4,176,867,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.22 | $4,176,867,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.22 | $4,176,867,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $7.22 | $4,176,867,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.22 | $4,176,867,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.22 | $4,176,867,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.22 | $4,176,867,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.22 | $4,176,867,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.22 | $4,176,867,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.22 | $4,176,867,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.22 | $4,176,867,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.22 | $4,176,867,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.22 | $4,176,867,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.22 | $4,176,867,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.22 | $4,176,867,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.91 | $4,309,716,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.91 | $4,309,716,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.91 | $4,309,716,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.91 | $4,309,716,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.91 | $4,309,716,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.91 | $4,309,716,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.91 | $4,309,716,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.91 | $4,309,716,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.91 | $4,309,716,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.91 | $4,309,716,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.91 | $4,309,716,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.91 | $4,309,716,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.91 | $4,309,716,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.91 | $4,309,716,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.91 | $4,309,716,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.91 | $4,309,716,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.91 | $4,309,716,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.91 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.91 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.91 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.92 | $4,309,716,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.90 | $4,307,149,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.90 | $4,307,149,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.90 | $4,307,149,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.90 | $4,307,149,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.90 | $4,307,149,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.90 | $4,307,149,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.90 | $4,307,149,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.90 | $4,307,149,500 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.