H&R Block (HRB)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$49.06-3.99%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HRB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -56.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 32.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 88.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HRB — officer change
Dated 2026-08-14
Director — Robert A. Gerard: Routine retirement of two board members ahead of the annual meeting with no indication of disagreement or operational disruption.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops, it may signal a change in the growth phase for H&R Block.
Worry ifH&R Block's Q1 revenue growth drops below the median of its historical growth rates.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains at or above the median of historical growth rates.
Why it matters: A lower effective tax rate can boost net income and earnings per share.
Supportive ifThe effective tax rate reported is below 14%.
Worry ifThe effective tax rate reported is above 25%.
Why it matters: Maintaining or increasing market share shows competitive strength and client trust.
Supportive ifAssisted channel market share remains stable or increases for the next quarter.
Worry ifAssisted channel market share is down from the previous quarter.
Why it matters: Share repurchases support stock price. A slowdown could signal reduced confidence.
Worry ifShare repurchases drop below $100 million in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifShare repurchases remain at or above $100 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Higher dividends show confidence in cash flow. This can attract more investors.
Supportive ifA quarterly dividend increase of more than 10% was announced.
Worry ifNo increase in quarterly dividend or a decrease.
Why it matters: Hitting this EBITDA target shows strong performance. It also supports the company's growth story.
Supportive ifQ4 EBITDA reported in the range of $1.025 to $1.035 billion.
Worry ifIf Q4 EBITDA is less than $1.015 billion, it shows weak operations.
Why it matters: Improving revenue growth is a top priority for H&R Block. It signals better business health.
Supportive ifQ1 revenue growth exceeds 4% year over year.
Worry ifQ1 revenue growth stays below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide key insights into H&R Block's financial health and outlook.
Watch forThe earnings report shows revenue and profit are better than expected.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows revenue and profit are lower than expected.
Why it matters: The one-time tax benefit could change future earnings. Knowing its effect helps understand profits.
Watch forFuture earnings reflect a lower effective tax rate due to the IRS resolution.
Also watch forNo change in effective tax rate, indicating the benefit was not impactful.
Why it matters: More share buybacks mean management trusts the company's value and future.
Supportive ifThey will announce share repurchases over $100 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo share repurchase announcements or cuts to the buyback plan.
Why it matters: The dividend shows H&R Block's promise to give value to shareholders and stay strong.
Supportive ifThe company will pay an increased dividend of $0.46 per share on October 6, 2026.
Worry ifFailure to pay the dividend or a cut in the dividend amount.
Why it matters: Hitting or going past this revenue target shows strong demand. It shows management wants to grow revenue.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported at or above $3.910 billion.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $3.875 billion.
Why it matters: Better operating income means better cost management. This leads to more profit.
Supportive ifOperating income will rise above $1,016 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifOperating income falls or stays below $1,016 million.
Why it matters: Growth in this segment is crucial for overall revenue and reflects client trust in H&R Block.
Supportive ifTax preparation revenue grew more than 5% from last year.
Worry ifAssisted tax preparation revenue grew less than 2% compared to last year.
Why it matters: This growth rate shows how well the company is making money. A strong result means H&R Block is doing well with its growth plan.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenue growth exceeds 5.3% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue growth is below 5.3% year over year.
Why it matters: A higher EPS means the company is making more money and managing costs well. This is important for keeping investors happy.
Supportive ifAdjusted diluted EPS for Q3 2026 exceeds $6.02.
Worry ifAdjusted diluted EPS for Q3 2026 is below $6.02.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$168 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $381 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,557 loss on $10,000 · 45.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.