Herc Holdings, Inc. (HRI)
NYSEIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$149.81-5.43%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HRI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -8.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 8 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HRI — CEO transition
Dated 2026-10-26
CEO — Lawrence H. Silber: The filing describes a planned internal succession where the CEO transitions to Executive Chairman and the President is promoted to CEO, indicating an orderly transition rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: Herc had $8.0 billion of net debt and 3.90x net leverage in Q3. A higher level would add to debt risk.
Worry ifNet leverage is above 3.90x in the next reported quarter.
Less concerning ifNet leverage is below 3.90x in the next reported quarter.
Why it matters: Herc raised its rental revenue range twice. Results at or above $4.475 billion would support its project-growth story.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 equipment rental revenue is at least $4.475 billion.
Worry ifEquipment rental revenue for full-year 2026 is less than $4.475 billion.
Why it matters: Herc said H&E synergies added more in Q3. More gains would show the deal is helping rental growth.
Supportive ifIn the next results, Herc says H&E revenue synergies rose again and reports higher rental revenue.
Worry ifHerc reports no further gain in H&E revenue synergies, or says they fell short of plan.
Why it matters: The CEO change is planned, and Birnbaum has long company experience. His first updates can show if the current plan stays in place.
Watch forBirnbaum takes the CEO role on January 1, 2027, and keeps the stated focus on project growth and H&E gains.
Also watch forThe handoff is delayed, or Birnbaum announces a change to the stated growth and integration plans.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$207 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $576 loss on $10,000 · 5.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,950 loss on $10,000 · 49.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.