Herc Holdings, Inc. (HRI)
NYSEIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$140.92+1.43%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HRI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -6.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers
HRI — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-19
Director — Erik Olsson: The filing discloses the election of a new independent director to the board, which is a standard governance event and not a departure of a sitting executive.
Why it matters: Affirming revenue guidance shows the company is on track for its financial goals. It can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifManagement confirms full year 2026 revenue guidance between $4,275M and $4,400M.
Worry ifManagement cuts the revenue forecast to below $4,275M.
Why it matters: The industrial sector is maturing. If revenue growth re-accelerates, it could help HRI's performance.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth shows an increase back toward previous highs.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is slowing down.
Why it matters: Higher spending shows belief in future demand and fleet growth after the acquisition.
Supportive ifSpending on rental equipment exceeds $950 million for 2026.
Worry ifSpending on rental equipment drops below $850 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Strong performance from peers like Caterpillar and GE could highlight HRI's struggles in a weak market.
Worry ifCaterpillar or GE reports strong revenue growth and improved margins.
Less concerning ifCaterpillar or GE reports weak performance or losses.
Why it matters: Affirming capex guidance shows the company is investing in growth. This can signal future revenue potential.
Supportive ifManagement confirms full year 2026 capex guidance between $500M and $800M.
Worry ifManagement cuts capex guidance to less than $500M.
Why it matters: Improving revenue trends can signal recovery and growth potential. This is key for investor sentiment.
Supportive ifQuarterly revenue shows growth compared to the previous quarter.
Worry ifQuarterly revenue keeps falling compared to the last quarter.
Why it matters: Rental revenue is growing. This shows the H&E acquisition is working and there is market demand.
Supportive ifQ3 equipment rental revenue growth exceeds 20% compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 equipment rental revenue growth falls below 15% compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: High net debt can mean financial problems. It may change how the company manages money.
Worry ifNet debt remains above $8 billion as of Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet debt decreases below $7.5 billion as of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A falling EBITDA margin may mean costs are rising. This can show problems after the acquisition.
Worry ifIn Q3, the adjusted EBITDA margin is below 39% compared to Q3 2025.
Less concerning ifIn Q3, the adjusted EBITDA margin is above 40% compared to Q3 2025.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$229 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $551 loss on $10,000 · 5.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,950 loss on $10,000 · 49.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.