Hormel Foods (HRL)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-07-07
$24.70+1.73%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $24.70. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $25 the market pays 18× p/e — above the 13× p/e peer median but in line with its own 19× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $20 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $26 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 1% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly — years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $1.38/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $16.26 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $14.64 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $10.47 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $21.42 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $18.11 | 13.0 | 1.39 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $18.61 | 10.1 | 2.20 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $15.78 | 12.5 | 1.26 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $18.37 | 13.0 | 1.41 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $19.85 | 0.9 | 22.18 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $26.30 | 18.7 | 1.41 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $14.85 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $26.53 | 18.8 | 1.41 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $19.14 | 13.0 | 1.47 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $22.83 | 13.0 | 1.75 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $14.91 | 12.5 | 1.19 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $24.15 | 13.0 | 1.85 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $21.09 | 0.9 | 23.57 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $34.57 | 18.7 | 1.85 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $34.87 | 18.8 | 1.85 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $26.64 | 13.0 | 2.04 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $14.35 | 12.5 | 1.14 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $25.27 | 13.0 | 1.94 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $22.07 | 0.9 | 24.67 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $36.18 | 18.7 | 1.94 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $36.49 | 18.8 | 1.94 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.