Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-10-26 · fmp
$1.65 → $1.66 · observed estimates
Hormel Foods (HRL)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$22.60-0.70%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HRL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EPS between $1.43 and $1.51 in fiscal 2026 | A primary condition in Hormel Foods's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.43 per share. | Under Pressure | Adjusted EPS falls below $1.43 in fiscal 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-10-26 · fmp
$1.65 → $1.66 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 3, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
HRL is a defensive consumer staples business with robust earnings quality and recent performance in the top half of its industry. Its multi-year view is intact, while near-term execution is mixed as quarterly revenue and earnings have softened despite reaffirmed guidance.
Valuation is neutral, and HRL trades at a premium to peers. The expectations gap is close to aligned, with no major fragility signal, so the market appears to reflect the current business setup rather than unusually high expectations.
Management has reaffirmed fiscal 2026 revenue and adjusted earnings guidance, but recent quarterly revenue, earnings, and operating income have declined. Momentum has improved and the signal has shifted to mildly favorable, though CEO and CFO transitions add near-term uncertainty.
The near-term test is whether management maintains guidance despite recent softness; a cut would signal a meaningful setback. A weakening jobs trend could add pressure, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, HRL’s long-term thesis rests on its earnings quality and whether management can deliver against guidance as leadership changes unfold. The setup is broadly intact, but recent results make execution the key watchpoint. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Hormel Foods's published investment case. The stated target is >= $960 million. |
| Intact |
| Operating income falls below $960 million in fiscal 2026 |
Operating income: $110.904M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $960 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 27, 2026110,904,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches at least $12.2 billion in fiscal 2026 | A primary condition in Hormel Foods's published investment case. The stated target is >= $12.2 billion. | Intact | Revenue falls below $12.2 billion in fiscal 2026 | Revenue: $2.961B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $12.2 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 27, 20262,961,333,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$12.76B → $12.76B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | $1.65 | $12,764,826,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.65 | $12,764,826,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.65 | $12,764,826,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.65 | $12,764,826,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.65 | $12,764,826,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.65 | $12,764,826,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.65 | $12,764,826,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.65 | $12,764,826,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.66 | $12,764,826,000 | 1 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.