Hormel Foods (HRL)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$21.54-0.65%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Adjusted EPS between $1.43 and $1.51 in fiscal 2026: FY26 EPS guidance $1.28-$1.37 vs $1.43 target.
Hormel Foods keeps growing sales about 2% a year. Profit margins stay near 10%. The company earns about $1.43 to $1.51 per share in 2026. It has a strong brand and steady cash flow.
Margin pressures could reduce profits below guidance. Revenue growth is slow and may stall. Management changes and cost issues could hurt execution.
The market expects about 1.6% revenue growth and values the stock with a price-to-earnings ratio above peers. Our view is cautious on margin risks and growth sustainability.
Breaks if: Adjusted EPS falls below $1.43 in fiscal 2026
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $960 million in fiscal 2026
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $12.2 billion in fiscal 2026
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on consumer staples. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong earnings quality, but tempered by recent mixed financial performance and sector challenges.
The market currently prices HRL with a low expectations gap, indicating that it is aligned with its peers. There is a slight premium compared to competitors, suggesting that investors expect stable performance in the near term.
Fundamentals may show pressure in the near term, as management has reaffirmed revenue and earnings guidance despite recent declines. The mixed trajectory suggests that while the company is maintaining its outlook, actual results may continue to fluctuate.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance amidst a challenging consumer environment. Additionally, external factors like inflation trends and performance of sector peers will play a crucial role in shaping future outcomes.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The reaffirmation of revenue guidance faces challenges from falling sales. A sharp drop in HRL's stock price suggests the market may be repricing the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, HRL's performance will depend on its execution against guidance and the broader economic environment. Not investment advice.