Hormel Foods (HRL)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$21.54-0.65%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
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Put HRL beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Packaged Foods & Meats: fringe margins under pressure (0q confirmed)
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Adjusted EPS between $1.43 and $1.51 in fiscal 2026: FY26 EPS guidance $1.28-$1.37 vs $1.43 target.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 1% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on margins, market reaction to earnings.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskHormel Foods (HRL) must maintain its adjusted EPS guidance to justify its current price. Recent financial performance shows strong adjusted EPS guidance of $1.43 to $1.51 for fiscal 2026. HRL trades at 15× P/E versus a peer median of 12.5×, indicating it looks expensive on this basis. The primary risk is the potential for a revenue miss, with a 22% probability of missing outlook. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% below where it trades. This read is provisional; the thesis is on watch due to pressure on a primary pillar.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-04. HRL is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 10 analysts currently covering HRL (as of Sep 2026).
Based on 3 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for HRL in the last 4 months.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HRL Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Packaged Foods & Meats — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put HRL next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Update operating income guidance to $0.96B to $1.02B for fiscal 2026
Improved margins support operating income guidance.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $21.54
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $21.54.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Threatens: Reaffirm revenue guidance of $12.2B to $12.5B for fiscal 2026
Falling sales could hinder revenue guidance achievement.
Threatens: Reaffirm revenue guidance of $12.2B to $12.5B for fiscal 2026
Falling sales may hinder revenue guidance achievement.
Advances: Reaffirm adjusted EPS guidance of $1.43 to $1.51 for fiscal 2026
Narrowing EPS guidance aligns with management's growth objectives.
Threatens: Reaffirm revenue guidance of $12.2B to $12.5B for fiscal 2026
Lackluster growth raises concerns about revenue guidance.
Advances: Reaffirm revenue guidance of $12.2B to $12.5B for fiscal 2026
Reaffirming sales guidance supports revenue growth objectives.
Threatens: Reaffirm adjusted EPS guidance of $1.43 to $1.51 for fiscal 2026
Margin concerns could impact EPS guidance negatively.