Hormel Foods (HRL)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$21.54-0.65%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HRL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 4.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 28 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HRL — CFO transition
Dated 2026-08-24
CFO — Ash Bhumbla: The filing announces the external hire of a new CFO to replace an interim officer, which is a significant management change but not a departure of a permanent executive.
Why it matters: This project aims to make things more efficient. Progress could help make more money.
Supportive ifManagement says there are clear benefits from the Transform and Modernize project.
Worry ifManagement says there are delays or problems with the Transform and Modernize project.
Why it matters: Lower EPS guidance means there may be problems with making money and running the business.
Worry ifDiluted EPS guidance is now below $1.28.
Less concerning ifDiluted EPS guidance maintained at $1.28 or higher.
Why it matters: The company has lower sales. Stabilization may mean demand is getting better.
Supportive ifNet sales for Q4 show growth or stabilize compared to Q3's $2.96 billion.
Worry ifNet sales decline further in Q4 below $2.96 billion.
Why it matters: Reaffirming EPS guidance shows management's confidence in earnings. It can influence stock performance.
Supportive ifManagement reaffirms adjusted EPS guidance of $1.43 to $1.51 in the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement lowers adjusted EPS guidance to less than $1.43 for fiscal 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$111 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $217 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,240 loss on $10,000 · 22.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow supports ongoing operations and investments. A decline could signal trouble.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations remains above $241 million in Q4.
Worry ifCash flow from operations drops below $241 million in Q4.
Why it matters: Keeping the revenue guidance shows confidence in growth. This helps set future expectations.
Supportive ifHormel reaffirms revenue guidance of $12.2B to $12.5B in the next earnings call.
Worry ifHormel lowers its revenue guidance below $12.2B for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: This would suggest the company is struggling to meet its earnings guidance for the year.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS for Q3 reported below $0.35.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EPS for Q3 reported at $0.35 or higher.
Why it matters: A drop in operating income may show problems and hurt overall profits.
Worry ifQ3 operating income was less than $217 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 operating income was $217 million or more.
Why it matters: This sale will show how Hormel is changing its strategy. It will affect overall performance.
Watch forQ3 results show little change in net sales and adjusted EPS from the turkey sale.
Also watch forQ3 results show a big drop in net sales and adjusted EPS from the turkey sale.
Why it matters: An update to the operating income guidance shows how management views profits. This can impact investor trust.
Supportive ifHormel updates operating income guidance to $0.96B to $1.02B in the next earnings call.
Worry ifHormel cuts its income guidance to less than $0.96B.
Why it matters: Reaffirming revenue guidance signals confidence in growth. It can affect investor trust.
Supportive ifManagement confirms revenue guidance of $12.2B to $12.5B during the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement cuts revenue guidance to below $12.2B for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: If they meet this growth target, it will help management's revenue plans for 2026. It shows demand is stable, even with recent sales drops.
Supportive ifQ4 organic net sales growth of 1% or more shows demand is recovering.
Worry ifQ4 organic net sales growth below 1% shows sales are still weak.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows management's confidence in earnings. This is true despite recent ups and downs.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS for Q4 falls between $1.45 and $1.51, supporting guidance.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS for Q4 below $1.45 shows earnings are under pressure.
Why it matters: Meeting this target would confirm management's new guidance and show they are strong.
Supportive ifOperating income for Q4 reaches or exceeds $0.96 billion, showing they are doing well.
Worry ifOperating income for Q4 was below $0.96 billion. This shows they are facing challenges.