Hormel Foods (HRL)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$22.76+7.06%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HRL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 6.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers
HRL — CEO transition
Dated 2026-10-29
CEO — John F. Ghingo: The filing discloses that John F. Ghingo assumed the role of CEO in addition to his existing role as President, which is an internal role expansion rather than a departure.
Why it matters: John Ghingo became CEO after serving as president-elect. Q4 results will be an early test of execution under his leadership.
Watch forQ4 adjusted EPS meets or tops the prior year, while Hormel keeps its FY2026 adjusted EPS range.
Also watch forQ4 adjusted EPS falls year over year and Hormel cuts its FY2026 adjusted EPS range.
Why it matters: Hormel lowered its sales range as Q3 sales fell. Meeting the new range would show the sales setback stayed limited.
Watch forFY2026 net sales are $12.1B to $12.2B, with organic sales growth of 1% to 2%.
Also watch forFY2026 net sales fall below $12.1B, or organic sales growth is below 1%.
Why it matters: Hormel raised its adjusted EPS range after Q3. The next report will show if earnings stay on track.
Supportive ifFY2026 adjusted diluted EPS is at least $1.45 and no more than $1.51.
Worry ifFY2026 adjusted diluted EPS is below $1.45, or the company cuts its range before year-end.
Why it matters: Hormel paid about $1.055B for Brakebush and said the deal would add to adjusted EPS from FY2028. Results will test that claim.
Supportive ifHormel reports that Brakebush adds to adjusted EPS in fiscal 2028.
Worry ifHormel reports that Brakebush does not add to adjusted EPS in fiscal 2028, or cites costs that erase the gain.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$89 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $215 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,871 loss on $10,000 · 28.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Foodservice has grown for 12 straight quarters and outpaced industry trends. A further gain would extend that record.
Supportive ifQ4 Foodservice organic net sales rise year over year, extending the 12-quarter growth streak.
Worry ifQ4 Foodservice organic net sales are flat or lower year over year.