Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. (HRMY)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$32.47-5.67%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.32 → 4.45 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HRMY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operations stays near or above $27.8 million | Cash flow is positive and supports growth. | Intact | Cash from operations falls below $25 million next year | Cash from operations: $92.432M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $27.8 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 4, 202692,432,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
HRMY is a growth-focused healthcare business whose thesis depends on expanding its pitolisant franchise and developing a broader central nervous system pipeline. The long-term thesis is intact, with recent financial performance strong, though risk is elevated and earnings quality and management evidence are neutral.
The valuation evidence describes HRMY as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not demanding. The valuation score recently rose, but model confidence is low and the overall priced-in tag is justified, with no fragility gates triggered.
Near term, management has reaffirmed 2026 revenue guidance, and second-quarter net product revenue was higher than a year earlier. The company has reported a Phase 1 data milestone for BP-205 and settlements with six of seven ANDA filers, but the evidence does not establish broader pipeline or exclusivity outcomes; the CEO transition adds uncertainty.
The near-term case depends on maintaining guidance and delivering the stated growth priority; a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative. A weaker jobs trend could add pressure through recession concerns, while continued strength from healthcare sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop. Over the multi-year view, pitolisant growth, franchise protection, and meaningful pipeline progress remain central swing factors.
For the 1-3 year view, HRMY has strong recent revenue momentum and a valuation described as cheap versus peers, but elevated risk, limited pipeline evidence, and leadership change temper the thesis. The case hinges on continued execution and progress beyond the current franchise. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit margins are stable with a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.3, cheaper than peers. |
| Intact |
| Operating income falls below $30 million next year |
Operating income: $54.197M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Maintain profit margins near Q1 2026 levels. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 202654,197,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches about $1.02 billion in 2026 | Harmony grows revenue about 18% yearly, aiming for $1.02 billion in 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $1 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $268.917M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.02 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026268,917,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.02 → $4.45 · observed estimates
$1.16B → $1.17B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $6.02 | $1,156,998,060 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.22 | $1,155,616,244 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $6.02 | $1,165,289,870 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.16 | $1,165,289,869 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $6.02 | $1,165,289,870 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.02 | $1,165,289,870 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $6.02 | $1,165,289,870 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.02 | $1,165,289,870 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.16 | $1,165,289,869 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.02 | $1,166,459,870 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $6.02 | $1,166,459,870 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.02 | $1,166,459,870 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.02 | $1,166,459,870 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.02 | $1,166,459,870 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.18 | $1,167,951,488 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $6.69 | $1,163,857,210 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.69 | $1,163,857,210 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.18 | $1,167,951,488 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.69 | $1,167,951,490 | 2 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.18 | $1,167,951,488 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.18 | $1,167,951,488 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.18 | $1,167,951,488 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.18 | $1,167,951,488 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.18 | $1,167,951,488 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.18 | $1,167,951,488 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.18 | $1,167,951,488 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.18 | $1,167,951,488 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.18 | $1,167,951,488 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.18 | $1,167,951,488 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.18 | $1,167,951,488 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.18 | $1,167,951,488 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.18 | $1,167,951,488 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.18 | $1,167,951,488 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.18 | $1,167,951,488 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.18 | $1,167,951,488 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.28 | $1,165,155,898 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.28 | $1,165,155,898 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.28 | $1,165,155,898 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.28 | $1,165,155,898 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.28 | $1,165,155,898 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.28 | $1,160,961,080 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.28 | $1,160,961,080 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.28 | $1,160,961,080 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.28 | $1,160,961,080 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.28 | $1,160,961,080 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.28 | $1,160,961,080 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.28 | $1,160,961,080 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.28 | $1,160,961,080 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.28 | $1,160,961,080 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.28 | $1,160,961,080 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.28 | $1,160,961,080 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.28 | $1,160,961,080 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.28 | $1,160,961,080 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.28 | $1,160,961,080 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.28 | $1,160,961,080 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.28 | $1,160,961,080 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.28 | $1,160,961,080 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.28 | $1,160,961,080 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.28 | $1,160,961,080 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.28 | $1,160,961,080 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.28 | $1,160,961,080 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.28 | $1,160,961,080 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.28 | $1,160,961,080 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.28 | $1,160,961,080 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.28 | $1,160,961,080 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.28 | $1,160,961,080 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.28 | $1,160,961,080 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.28 | $1,160,961,080 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.28 | $1,160,961,080 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.32 | $1,165,071,570 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.32 | $1,165,071,570 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.32 | $1,165,071,570 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.32 | $1,165,071,570 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.32 | $1,165,071,570 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.32 | $1,165,071,570 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.32 | $1,165,071,570 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.32 | $1,165,071,570 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.32 | $1,165,071,570 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.32 | $1,165,071,570 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.32 | $1,165,071,570 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.32 | $1,165,071,570 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.32 | $1,165,071,570 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.32 | $1,165,071,570 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.44 | $1,166,415,606 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.44 | $1,166,415,606 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.44 | $1,166,415,606 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.44 | $1,166,415,606 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.44 | $1,166,415,606 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.44 | $1,166,415,606 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.44 | $1,166,415,606 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.44 | $1,166,415,606 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.44 | $1,166,415,606 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.44 | $1,166,415,606 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.44 | $1,166,415,606 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.44 | $1,166,415,606 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.44 | $1,166,415,606 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.44 | $1,166,415,606 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.45 | $1,166,915,606 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.45 | $1,166,915,606 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.45 | $1,166,915,606 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.45 | $1,166,915,606 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.45 | $1,166,915,606 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.45 | $1,166,915,606 | 6 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.