Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. (HRMY)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$34.42-7.02%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HRMY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -60.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 15.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 76.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 66 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HRMY — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 4, 2026, Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of this press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: WAKIX revenue grew 30% in Q2, and management kept its full-year range. Meeting it would support the growth plan.
Supportive ifAt the next results update, management reports 2026 WAKIX revenue of $1.0B–$1.04B or more.
Worry ifManagement cuts the 2026 range below $1.0B, or reported revenue misses the low end.
Why it matters: The CEO change comes as Harmony advances WAKIX and several clinical programs. Clear plans and steady guidance would support an orderly handoff.
Watch forOn Nov. 4, the new CEO keeps the $1.0B–$1.04B 2026 WAKIX range and confirms the stated BP-205 and trial timelines.
Also watch forThe company cuts the WAKIX range or pushes back BP-205 or other stated trial dates.
Why it matters: The next safety and dose test can show if BP-205 can move beyond one-time dosing. A setback would weaken the lead pipeline case.
Watch forQ4 2026 multiple-dose results show no serious or severe events linked to treatment. They support once-daily dosing.
Also watch forResults show serious or severe treatment-related events, poor dose response, or a delay beyond Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Harmony says pitolisant protection supports WAKIX through 2030. The court outcome can affect that protection and the franchise plan.
Watch forThe court rules for Harmony on the AET ANDA case, or AET agrees to terms that protect the cited patents.
Also watch forThe court rules against Harmony on the cited patents. Or it lets AET launch before the stated protection period.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$133 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $383 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,449 loss on $10,000 · 34.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: FDA approval could add a new pitolisant form with less need to raise the dose over time. A delay or rejection would block that launch plan.
Watch forFDA approves the Pitolisant GR NDA by its April 1, 2027 target date.
Also watch forFDA rejects the NDA, delays the decision past April 1, 2027, or asks for more data.