Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. (HRMY)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$42.25+0.93%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HRMY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -55.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 15.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 70.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HRMY — CFO transition
Dated 2026-07-16
Chief Financial Officer — Glenn Reicin: Glenn Reicin resigned as Chief Financial Officer to pursue other career opportunities.
Why it matters: The result could affect WAKIX's market position. It may also change revenue from pitolisant.
Supportive ifThe lawsuit against AET Pharma/Sandoz ends with a good ruling for Harmony.
Worry ifThe lawsuit ends with a ruling against Harmony. This affects its IP strategy.
Why it matters: Changes to revenue guidance may show shifts in market demand or problems in operations.
Worry ifHarmony reaffirms 2026 revenue guidance of $1.0 billion to $1.04 billion.
Less concerning ifHarmony lowers its 2026 revenue guidance from $1.0 billion.
Why it matters: The new CFO could change financial strategy. This may affect efficiency and growth.
Watch forThe next quarterly report may show more operating income. This comes after the CFO change.
Also watch forA drop in operating income is expected in the next quarterly report.
Why it matters: The result could affect IP protection for pitolisant. This may change market trust.
Watch forA court ruling supports Harmony Biosciences in the AET Pharma case.
Also watch forA court ruling supports AET Pharma, hurting Harmony's IP strength.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$140 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $362 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,449 loss on $10,000 · 34.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Good data could improve the product's market position and increase its use, raising revenue.
Supportive ifA press release shares good news from the Phase 3 study for Pitolisant. This study is for Prader-Willi syndrome.
Worry ifNegative or unclear results came from the Phase 3 study for Pitolisant in PWS.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key for Harmony. A drop below 10% signals trouble in the sector.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth stays at or above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Better operating income is important. It shows the company is managing costs well.
Supportive ifOperating income goes up each quarter.
Worry ifOperating income goes down or stays the same each quarter.
Why it matters: The CFO change may affect financial plans and actions. Strong leadership helps keep investor trust.
Worry ifThe new CFO, Stephen Mollichella, runs financial operations well. There are no issues.
Less concerning ifMore changes in leadership or problems in the finance team could disrupt operations or guidance.
Why it matters: Good data would show BP-205 as a top treatment. This would help investor trust.
Supportive ifPhase 1 MAD data for BP-205 shows favorable results.
Worry ifPhase 1 MAD data for BP-205 shows unfavorable results or delays.
Why it matters: This shows a drop in demand for WAKIX. It could hurt annual revenue goals.
Worry ifQ3 2026 WAKIX revenue growth below 30% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 WAKIX revenue growth at or above 30% year over year.
Why it matters: The results will confirm if Harmony can maintain its revenue growth momentum. Strong results would support the full-year guidance.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 net product revenue exceeds $261 million, showing continued growth.
Worry ifIn Q2 2026, net product revenue may drop below $261 million. This could mean problems.
Why it matters: The success of the kids' indication will affect total sales and help meet revenue goals.
Supportive ifSales grew a lot in the kids' area after FDA approval on February 13.
Worry ifSales growth is slow. There are market access problems for the kids' area after approval.
Why it matters: Results may change the competition for pitolisant. This could affect revenue.
Watch forA good ruling in the ANDA case against AET Pharma and Sandoz.
Also watch forA bad ruling in the ANDA case against AET Pharma and Sandoz.
Why it matters: Improvements in BP-205 could make Harmony's products better. This may help revenue in the future.
Supportive ifPositive Phase 1 clinical data for BP-205 released by mid-2026.
Worry ifNegative or delayed data from the Phase 1 study for BP-205.
Why it matters: The revenue guidance confirms Harmony can keep growing for WAKIX.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 net revenue meets or exceeds guidance of $1.0 billion to $1.04 billion.
Worry ifQ3 2026 net revenue falls short of the guidance range.
Why it matters: A successful submission would help Harmony grow and create new products.
Supportive ifNDA submission for Pitolisant GR is completed by Q4 2026.
Worry ifNDA submission for Pitolisant GR is delayed beyond Q4 2026.