SOLANA CO (HSDT)
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.93-8.10%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HSDT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -12.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 24 industry peers
HSDT — debt issuance
Dated 2026-09-30
Other Events Registered Direct Offering On September 30, 2026 , the Company entered into securities purchase agreements (the “RDO Purchase Agreements”) with the purchasers named therein (the “Purchasers”), pursuant to which (i) the Company issued and sold to the Purchasers, in a registered direct offering (the “Registered Direct Offering”), an aggregate of 4,369,356 shares (the “Shares”) of the Company’s Class A common stock, $0.001 par value per share at a purchase price of $3.433 per share…
Why it matters: The Tokyo cluster is the first step in the Pacific Backbone plan. Outside staking would show that the infrastructure can add revenue beyond HSDT's own SOL.
Supportive ifHSDT reports third-party SOL staked on the Tokyo cluster. It also reports related staking revenue.
Worry ifThe next results report no third-party SOL on the cluster and no related revenue.
Why it matters: HSDT says its aim is to put more SOL behind each share. The offering adds shares, so later filings can show whether buybacks or SOL purchases offset that increase.
Watch forA later filing shows more SOL per share than the September 24 level after the offering shares are counted.
Also watch forA later filing shows flat or lower SOL per share after the offering shares are counted.
Why it matters: The offering adds cash but also brings 4.37 million new shares and warrants for up to 4.37 million more. Track the closing and how HSDT uses the cash.
Watch forHSDT reports the offering closed and uses some proceeds for share buybacks or SOL purchases that raise SOL per share.
Also watch forThe offering does not close, or HSDT uses the cash without reporting a gain in SOL per share.
Why it matters: Staking drove most Q2 revenue, but revenue fell from $3.6 million in Q1 to $2.5 million in Q2. A return to growth would support the recurring revenue story.
Supportive ifThe November 17 results report staking revenue above $2.5 million for Q3.
Worry ifQ3 staking revenue is $2.5 million or less, or falls from Q2.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$266 on $10,000 · ±2.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $923 loss on $10,000 · 9.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,691 loss on $10,000 · 76.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.