SOLANA CO (HSDT)
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.24-4.68%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HSDT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -0.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -6.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 36 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HSDT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-14
of this current report on Form 8-K (including the accompanying Exhibit 99.1 hereto) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, except as expressly incorporated…
Why it matters: Better cash flow from operations is key for financial health. It shows good cost control.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations is positive or greatly improves from -$4.83 million in Q1.
Worry ifCash flow from operations worsens or remains negative.
Why it matters: Selling the legacy business could free resources for growth in digital assets. This may boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifManagement reports better cash flow or lower costs from the divestiture in Q3.
Worry ifNo good news on cash flow or cost cuts from the divestiture.
Why it matters: Ongoing share buybacks show that management cares about how they use capital. It may also show they believe in the company's future.
Supportive ifShare repurchases over $2.3 million were announced for Q3.
Worry ifNo share repurchases or a drop in repurchase activity in Q3.
Why it matters: If Solana's revenue growth lags behind the sector, it may indicate deeper issues.
Worry ifSolana's revenue growth is over 15%. This shows it is doing well compared to others.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth falls below 10%. This suggests possible challenges in the current market.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$320 on $10,000 · ±3.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,163 loss on $10,000 · 11.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $9,474 loss on $10,000 · 94.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means better financial health and smoother operations.
Supportive ifOperational cash flow was less than -$4 million, but it shows progress.
Worry ifOperational cash flow was worse than -$4.83 million, which shows ongoing problems.
Why it matters: This project is important for better staking and making money. Success can boost operations.
Supportive ifThere is news about a big milestone or partnership for the Pacific Backbone project.
Worry ifThere are no updates or delays for the Pacific Backbone project.
Why it matters: A drop in staking revenue could mean problems for the company's growth. It may show that the digital asset treasury strategy is not doing well.
Worry ifQ3 revenue from staking services was below $2.5 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue from staking services remains above $2.5 million.
Why it matters: If revenue exceeds $4 million in Q2, it shows strong growth and good strategy.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported above $4 million, indicating strong growth from Q1.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported below $3.6 million, suggesting a slowdown in growth.
Why it matters: Staking revenue is key for Solana Company. A decline could signal issues in their growth strategy.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is over $2.5 million. This shows stable or growing revenue.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue drops below $2.5 million, showing a decline in growth.
Why it matters: A smaller loss shows better cost control. This matches management's goal to improve income.
Supportive ifThe operating loss was below -$90 million. This is better than -$99.6 million in Q1.
Worry ifThe operating loss is still above -$99.6 million. This shows ongoing cost management issues.