Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
HealthStream, Inc. (HSTM)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$29.60-8.87%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.83 → 0.79 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HSTM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Effective capital return via dividends and buybacks | The share buyback and dividend increases show strong capital allocation. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.035 or buybacks cease in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a smaller-cap healthcare business with strong recent financial performance and robust earnings quality, rather than a turnaround story. The multi-year view is intact, while management volatility and elevated risk remain important qualifications.
HSTM is expensive versus peers, with a durable premium and an expectations gap of 0.31. The evidence labels the priced-in setup unjustified and finds low fragility, but it does not provide enough detail to say exactly what growth expectations the market assumes.
Near term, management has reaffirmed and slightly raised 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance, and recent performance remains in the top half of its industry. Dividend increases and initial share repurchases show progress on stated priorities, though a recent negative capital-allocation event is noted without further detail. A guidance reversal would pose a credibility risk, while weakening jobs data could add pressure to cyclical healthcare names.
The multi-year thesis depends on management sustaining its recently raised guidance and delivering on its stated priorities. Near term, weakening employment data is an unfavorable risk, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support healthcare-sector momentum. The evidence for the September strategic partnership and capital-allocation events is thin, so their business impact is unclear.
The 1-to-3-year thesis remains intact on strong recent results and steady guidance, but the expensive valuation, management volatility, and elevated risk make execution the central test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Management reaffirms 2026 revenue guidance near $326.5 million. |
| Intact |
| Management cuts 2026 revenue or net income guidance |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth at or above consensus | A primary condition in HealthStream, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=6.7% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 6.7% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 12.55% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=6.7% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202612.549062 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.86 → $0.79 · observed estimates
$0.34B → $0.35B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.86 | $343,285,200 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.81 | $343,285,320 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.86 | $343,285,200 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.81 | $343,285,320 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.81 | $343,285,320 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.86 | $343,285,200 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.86 | $343,285,200 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.86 | $343,285,200 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.81 | $343,285,320 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.86 | $343,285,200 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.86 | $343,285,200 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.86 | $343,285,200 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.86 | $343,285,200 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.86 | $343,285,200 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.82 | $343,802,560 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.82 | $343,802,560 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.86 | $343,809,400 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.82 | $343,802,560 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.86 | $343,809,400 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.82 | $343,802,560 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.82 | $343,802,560 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.82 | $343,802,560 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.82 | $343,802,560 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.82 | $343,802,560 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.82 | $343,802,560 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.82 | $343,802,560 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.83 | $344,505,160 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.84 | $344,636,467 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.84 | $344,636,467 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.84 | $344,636,467 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.84 | $344,636,467 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.84 | $344,636,467 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.84 | $344,636,467 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.84 | $344,636,467 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.84 | $344,636,467 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.84 | $344,636,467 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.84 | $344,636,467 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.84 | $344,636,467 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.84 | $344,636,467 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.84 | $344,636,467 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.83 | $344,636,467 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.83 | $344,636,467 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.83 | $344,636,467 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.83 | $344,636,467 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.83 | $344,636,467 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.83 | $344,636,467 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.83 | $344,636,467 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.79 | $345,707,150 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.