HealthStream, Inc. (HSTM)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$29.20-1.82%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HSTM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 18.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HSTM — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-03
Other Events. On August 3, 2026, we announced that our Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend under the Company's dividend policy in the amount of $0.035 per share of the Company’s outstanding common stock, which dividend will be payable on August 28, 2026 to holders of record on August 17, 2026.
Why it matters: A higher dividend shows strong cash flow. It also shows a promise to give value to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe Board announces an increase in the quarterly cash dividend above $0.035 per share.
Worry ifThe Board maintains the dividend at $0.035 per share without an increase.
Why it matters: An increase shows strong financial health. It also shows a promise to return money to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase above $0.035 per share.
Worry ifDividend remains at $0.035 per share or decreases.
Why it matters: Completing the share buyback shows management trusts the company's value and future.
Supportive ifThe share buyback program ends by the September 12, 2026 deadline.
Worry ifThe program is suspended or not completed by the September 12, 2026 deadline.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how well the company is meeting its full-year guidance after a recent miss.
Watch forQ2 earnings meet or exceed the full-year guidance reaffirmed in May 2026.
Also watch forQ2 earnings miss again, raising doubts about the full-year guidance.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$156 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $294 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,206 loss on $10,000 · 32.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This shows strong performance and backs the company's growth story.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 adjusted EBITDA meets or exceeds $20 million.
Worry ifIn Q2 2026, adjusted EBITDA drops below $18 million.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth below its median could signal challenges in the growth phase.
Worry ifRevenue growth drops below the median growth rate for the sector.
Less concerning ifIf revenue growth is steady or goes up, it supports the growth story.
Why it matters: This growth rate is key to maintaining momentum after a strong Q2. A drop signals potential issues in sustaining demand.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth prints below 11.5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth stays at or above 11.5% year over year.
Why it matters: Updates on share buybacks show that management believes in the stock's value and growth.
Supportive ifThey announced more shares bought back under the $10 million program.
Worry ifNo more shares will be bought back before the program ends on September 12, 2026.
Why it matters: Merging acquisitions well can help growth and make services better.
Supportive ifManagement says Virsys12 and MissionCare Collective will help a lot in the next quarters.
Worry ifThere is no news on integration progress or any problems from the acquisitions.
Why it matters: Completing the share buyback shows strong cash flow. It also shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company will finish the $10 million share buyback by September 2026.
Worry ifThe company may stop or change the share buyback plan before it is done.