Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
HeartFlow, Inc. (HTFL)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$51.95-8.17%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HTFL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Non-GAAP gross margin near 81% in FY26 | Gross margin is expected near 81%, showing cost control. | Intact | gross margin falls below 75% | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Gross margin was 83.0%, compared to 75.5% in the prior year period.” “The year-over-year gross margin expansion was primarily attributable to an increase in total revenue case volume, an increase in total U.S. Plaque revenue case volume, and improved production team productivity driven by AI efficiency initiatives, partially offset by the hiring and training of production team personnel.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth business with a path toward better operating leverage, meaning revenue growth is beginning to reduce operating losses. The long-term thesis is still on watch: management priorities are on track, but the business remains loss-making and risk is elevated.
HTFL is valued at a premium to peers, with the model showing a 13% premium and a low-confidence expectations gap. The valuation is stretched, though the evidence describes fragility as low because expensive valuation is not combined with the full mix of weak fundamentals and turbulence.
Near-term, management’s recent execution points to strong revenue growth, higher guidance, gross-margin expansion, and narrower operating losses. But recent financial performance is weak relative to its industry cohort, and a prior deep earnings miss plus a downward trend in earnings surprises remain risks.
The multi-year case depends on management sustaining its raised revenue guidance and progress toward profitability. Near-term, a guidance reversal would damage credibility, while weaker jobs data could weigh on cyclical healthcare names; continued strong results from sector peers would support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, HTFL’s thesis rests on turning fast growth and improving margins into sustained progress toward profitability, while overcoming weak relative performance and a premium valuation. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Operating income improves from -$29.5M in 2026-Q1 | The company aims to improve operating income despite recent losses. | Improving | operating loss worsens beyond -$29.5M in subsequent quarters | Operating income: $-17.9M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating loss narrows by at least 50% by FY26 end. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 2026-17,900,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Annual revenue reaches $228M-$232M in FY26 | A primary condition in HeartFlow, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $228M-$232M. | Intact | annual revenue falls below $173M in FY26 | Revenue: $64.082M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $228M-$232M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 202664,082,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.26 → $-0.27 · observed estimates
$0.28B → $0.31B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.26 | $282,828,915 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.26 | $282,828,915 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.26 | $282,828,915 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.26 | $282,828,915 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.26 | $282,828,915 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.26 | $282,828,915 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.26 | $282,779,910 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.26 | $282,779,910 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.26 | $282,828,915 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.27 | $283,134,360 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.27 | $283,134,360 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.27 | $283,134,360 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.27 | $283,177,925 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.27 | $283,134,360 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.27 | $283,177,925 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.27 | $283,177,925 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.27 | $283,134,360 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.27 | $283,134,360 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.27 | $283,177,925 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.27 | $283,177,925 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.27 | $283,177,925 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.27 | $283,177,925 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.27 | $283,177,925 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.27 | $283,177,925 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.27 | $283,177,925 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.27 | $283,177,925 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.26 | $309,206,035 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.26 | $309,206,035 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.26 | $309,206,035 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.26 | $309,206,035 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.26 | $309,206,035 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.26 | $309,206,035 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.26 | $309,206,035 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.26 | $309,206,035 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.26 | $309,206,035 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.26 | $309,206,035 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.26 | $309,206,035 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.26 | $309,206,035 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.26 | $309,206,035 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.26 | $309,206,035 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.26 | $309,206,035 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.26 | $309,206,035 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.26 | $309,206,035 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.26 | $309,206,035 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.26 | $309,206,035 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.26 | $309,206,035 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.26 | $309,206,035 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.26 | $309,022,576 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.26 | $309,022,576 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.26 | $309,022,576 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.26 | $309,022,576 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.26 | $309,022,576 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.26 | $309,022,576 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.26 | $309,022,576 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.26 | $309,022,576 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.26 | $309,022,576 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.26 | $309,022,576 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.26 | $309,022,576 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.26 | $309,022,576 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.26 | $309,017,876 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.26 | $309,017,876 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.26 | $309,022,576 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.26 | $309,022,576 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.26 | $309,022,576 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.26 | $309,022,576 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.26 | $309,022,576 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.26 | $309,022,576 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.26 | $309,022,576 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.26 | $309,022,576 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.26 | $309,022,576 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.26 | $309,022,576 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.26 | $309,022,576 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.26 | $309,022,576 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.26 | $309,022,576 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.26 | $309,022,576 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.26 | $309,050,029 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.26 | $309,050,029 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.26 | $309,050,029 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.26 | $309,050,029 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.26 | $309,050,029 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.26 | $309,053,809 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.26 | $309,053,809 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.26 | $309,053,809 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.26 | $309,053,809 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.26 | $309,053,809 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.26 | $309,053,809 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.26 | $309,053,809 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.26 | $309,053,809 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.26 | $309,053,809 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.26 | $309,053,809 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.27 | $308,555,865 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.27 | $308,555,865 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.27 | $308,555,865 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.27 | $308,555,865 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.27 | $308,555,865 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.27 | $308,555,865 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.27 | $308,555,865 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.27 | $308,555,865 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.27 | $308,555,865 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.27 | $308,555,865 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.27 | $308,555,865 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.27 | $308,555,865 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.27 | $308,550,642 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-0.27 | $308,550,642 | 5 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.