HeartFlow, Inc. (HTFL)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$48.91-1.61%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HTFL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 39.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 33.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HTFL — earnings miss
Dated 2025-11-12
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 12, 2025, Heartflow, Inc. issued a press release regarding its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: If healthcare sector growth picks up, it can benefit HeartFlow. This may improve its market position.
Supportive ifHealthcare sector revenue growth speeds up above 10%.
Worry ifHealthcare sector revenue growth continues to decline below 5%.
Why it matters: Confirming this guidance shows the company is on track for strong growth. It reflects management's confidence in revenue growth.
Supportive ifManagement says annual revenue guidance is still $228M-$232M for the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement cuts the annual revenue forecast to less than $228M.
Why it matters: A smaller operating loss shows better financial health and cost control.
Supportive ifOperating loss was less than $29.5 million.
Worry ifOperating loss was worse than $29.5 million.
Why it matters: A bigger operating loss shows financial problems. This can hurt investor trust. It means they need to control costs better.
Worry ifOperating loss exceeds $29.5 million in Q2.
Less concerning ifOperating loss improves and is less than $29.5 million.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$237 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $791 loss on $10,000 · 7.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,866 loss on $10,000 · 48.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Confirming the revenue guidance of $228M-$232M shows strong growth momentum.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported between $228M and $232M.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported below $228M.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means better financial health. It can bring in more investors.
Supportive ifHeartFlow shows operating income of more than -$20M.
Worry ifOperating income gets worse, dropping below -$30M.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into HeartFlow's performance and future outlook. It is a key moment for investors.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth and improved margins.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows less money coming in or bigger losses.
Why it matters: Confirming the revenue guidance shows HeartFlow's growth momentum is strong. It indicates confidence in future sales.
Supportive ifHeartFlow confirms Q2 revenue guidance within the range of $228M to $232M.
Worry ifHeartFlow lowers Q2 revenue guidance below $228M.
Why it matters: This margin shows HeartFlow is keeping costs low while making more money. It means they are working efficiently.
Supportive ifHeartFlow reports a non-GAAP gross margin of 81% or higher.
Worry ifNon-GAAP gross margin falls below 80%.
Why it matters: Maintaining or raising guidance shows strong demand and growth potential. It confirms management's confidence in the business.
Supportive ifManagement says Q3 revenue will be at least $246 million.
Worry ifManagement cuts Q3 revenue guidance to below $246 million.
Why it matters: This margin shows good cost management and efficiency. It helps with long-term profits.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP gross margin reported at or above 82%.
Worry ifNon-GAAP gross margin reported below 82%.
Why it matters: A smaller operating loss shows better cost control and financial health. This builds investor trust.
Supportive ifGAAP operating loss improves from $17.9 million in Q2 to less than $17 million in Q3.
Worry ifGAAP operating loss increases or remains above $17.9 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Sustaining strong U.S. revenue growth shows market demand for HeartFlow's products. It reflects the company's competitive position.
Supportive ifU.S. revenue growth reported above 40% year-over-year in Q3.
Worry ifU.S. revenue growth reported below 40% year-over-year in Q3.