HeartFlow, Inc. (HTFL)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$56.57+3.99%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HTFL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 46.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 38.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 312 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
HTFL — earnings miss
Dated 2025-11-12
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 12, 2025, Heartflow, Inc. issued a press release regarding its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Management called Plaque a second growth engine and linked it to new accounts and more physician use. Rising case volume would support that claim.
Supportive ifHeartflow reports higher U.S. Plaque case volume year over year in Q3 and names it as a source of revenue growth.
Worry ifHeartflow reports flat or lower U.S. Plaque case volume year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Q2 revenue rose 48% year over year to $64.1 million. A Q3 result below $61.5 million would show a sharp slowdown.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is below $61.5 million, less than 40% growth from Q3 2025 revenue of about $43.9 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue is at least $61.5 million, keeping growth at or above 40% year over year.
Why it matters: The Q2 loss narrowed to $7.9 million as revenue grew. A larger loss could weaken the sign of better cost control.
Worry ifQ3 non-GAAP operating loss is greater than $7.9 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 non-GAAP operating loss is $7.9 million or less as revenue grows.
Why it matters: Heartflow raised its 2026 revenue range to $246 million to $250 million. A cut below the new range would reverse that progress.
Worry ifOn the November 12 earnings call, Heartflow cuts its 2026 revenue outlook below $246 million.
Less concerning ifHeartflow keeps its 2026 revenue outlook at $246 million or higher.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$229 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $745 loss on $10,000 · 7.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,486 loss on $10,000 · 44.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Heartflow raised its 2026 margin goal to about 82%. A lower Q3 margin could put that goal at risk.
Worry ifQ3 non-GAAP gross margin is below 82%.
Less concerning ifQ3 non-GAAP gross margin is 82% or higher, in line with the full-year goal.