Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - ConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$39.24+0.87%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - ConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HTH
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $39 HTH trades at 1.1× p/b, below its 1.2× p/b peer median, but our blended $38 fair value is roughly in line with the price. It's a high-confidence read. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ddm gordon | 12M | $5.00 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $47.54 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/B | 12M | $46.15 | 1.2 | 37.21 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $27.31 | 10.9 | 2.51 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2025-Q4, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $41.85 |
| 3.2 |
| 13.24 |
| TTM |
| high |
| residual income | 12M | $35.61 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $41.06 | 15.2 | 2.70 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $35.04 | 11.9 | 2.93 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/B | 3Y | $47.61 | 1.2 | 38.39 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $37.73 | 10.9 | 3.46 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $89.96 | 3.2 | 28.47 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $52.67 | 15.2 | 3.46 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/B | 5Y | $48.61 | 1.2 | 39.19 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $49.90 | 10.9 | 4.58 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $118.97 | 3.2 | 37.65 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $69.65 | 15.2 | 4.58 | Analyst | high |