Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - ConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$39.24+0.87%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - ConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HTH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 48.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 45.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 0 industry peers
HTH — CFO transition
Dated 2026-04-28
Director — Dana Bober and Stephen Haworth: The company appointed two new directors to the Board of Directors.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops, it may signal trouble in the financial sector. This could impact overall performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median of 13% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth stays above the median of 13% year over year.
Why it matters: Better cash flow is key for keeping dividends and buying back shares.
Supportive ifCash from operations is positive. This means the company is working more efficiently.
Worry ifCash from operations is still negative. This shows ongoing trouble making cash.
Why it matters: Share buybacks show that management is confident. They also affect shareholder value.
Supportive ifQ3 share buybacks are over $50 million. This shows a strong capital return plan.
Worry ifNo big share buybacks happen in Q3. This suggests a change in capital use.
Why it matters: Changes in credit loss provisions show asset quality and how well risks are managed.
Worry ifProvision for credit losses remains below $1.0 million in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifProvision for credit losses exceeds $2.0 million in Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$78 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $187 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,353 loss on $10,000 · 13.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A big increase might mean worse credit quality and affect future earnings.
Worry ifIf the provision for credit losses is over $1.8 million, there may be credit problems.
Less concerning ifIf the credit loss provision is less than $1.8 million, credit quality is stable.
Why it matters: Interest rate changes affect net interest margins and profits. Watching this can show future earnings trends.
Watch forThe FOMC will decide on rates on July 29. This will affect market expectations.
Also watch forFOMC decision indicates a rate cut, which could compress net interest margins.
Why it matters: Stable or growing deposits show customer trust and financial strength.
Supportive ifTotal deposits were above $10.5 billion in Q2 2026.
Worry ifTotal deposits were below $10.5 billion in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in dividends can show how confident management is about cash flow.
Watch forIf dividends go up over $0.20 per share, it shows good cash flow management.
Also watch forIf dividends go down or stay the same, it may mean cash flow problems.
Why it matters: A new CFO can change the financial plan and operations. This affects performance.
Watch forThe new CFO uses a good strategy that improves financial results.
Also watch forThe CFO change may cause more problems or financial decline.
Why it matters: Higher noninterest income shows growth in fees and total revenue.
Supportive ifIn Q2 2026, noninterest income was over $188.4 million.
Worry ifIn Q2 2026, noninterest income was under $188.4 million.
Why it matters: Changes in credit losses can show how healthy the loan portfolio is.
Worry ifProvision for credit losses drops from $1.8 million in Q1 2026.
Less concerning ifProvision for credit losses goes up. This signals possible problems with loan quality.
Why it matters: Changes in credit loss allowances reflect asset quality. A rise could signal increasing risk.
Worry ifAllowance for credit losses remains below 1.06% of loans HFI.
Less concerning ifAllowance for credit losses rises above 1.10% of loans HFI.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising dividends shows the company is financially healthy. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company declares a dividend of at least $0.20 per share for future quarters.
Worry ifThe company cuts or stops the dividend payout. This shows financial trouble.
Why it matters: Changes in the allowance show how credit risk is managed and asset quality.
Watch forAllowance for credit losses stays stable or goes down as a percentage of loans.
Also watch forAllowance for credit losses goes up a lot. This shows credit risk is rising.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow from operations is crucial for Hilltop's financial health. It shows the company's ability to generate cash from its core business.
Supportive ifCash from operations is positive in Q2 2026. This shows recovery.
Worry ifCash from operations is still negative in Q2 2026. This shows ongoing issues.
Why it matters: Growth in noninterest income is key for total revenue. Strong growth shows good management of fee services.
Supportive ifIn Q3, noninterest income is over $200 million. This shows strong performance.
Worry ifIn Q3, noninterest income is below $188 million. This suggests revenue challenges.
Why it matters: More mortgage origination means more revenue. It shows that the market needs loans.
Supportive ifIn Q3, mortgage origination volume was over $2.4 billion. This shows growth is ongoing.
Worry ifIn Q3, mortgage origination volume dropped below $2.0 billion. This shows a slowdown.
Why it matters: A higher net interest margin means better profits from loans and deposits.
Supportive ifIn Q3, net interest margin rose above 3.42%. This shows better loan profits.
Worry ifIn Q3, net interest margin fell below 3.13%. This shows possible margin pressure.