Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$36.81-2.31%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HTH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 53.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 52.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HTH — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-22
. | | 104 | | Cover Page Interactive File (formatted as Inline XBRL). SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. | | | | | Hilltop Holdings Inc., | | a Maryland corporation | | | | | | Date: | October 22, 2026 | By: | /s/ COREY G. PRESTIDGE | | Name: | Corey G. Prestidge | | Title: | Exec…
Why it matters: The provision rose to $10.2 million in Q3 from a $1.0 million release in Q2. Another large provision would weigh on earnings.
Worry ifThe next quarter's provision for credit losses is $10.2 million or higher.
Less concerning ifThe next quarter shows a credit-loss release, or a provision below $10.2 million.
Why it matters: The bank's margin rose to 3.49% in Q3, while deposits rose 4.7% from Q2. More growth could support bank income.
Supportive ifPlainsCapital's net interest margin rises above 3.49%. Deposits rise from the Q3 level of $11.2 billion.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 3.49%, or deposits fall below $11.2 billion.
Why it matters: PrimeLending lost $10.8 million in Q3 as volume fell. A smaller loss and higher volume would show the business is gaining ground.
Supportive ifIn the next reported quarter, PrimeLending's pre-tax loss is under $10.8 million. Loan volume is over $2.2 billion.
Worry ifPrimeLending's pre-tax loss is $10.8 million or more, or volume is $2.2 billion or less.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$71 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $182 loss on $10,000 · 1.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,353 loss on $10,000 · 13.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.