Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$36.81-2.31%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.50 → 2.33 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HTH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend payout at $0.20 per share | Hilltop Holdings keeps paying and slightly raising dividends, now $0.20 per share. | Intact | dividend per share falls below $0.20 in any quarter of 2026 | Dividend per share: $0.22 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.20 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 23, 20260.22 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
HTH is a regional bank with a measured, execution-led multi-year view, rather than a high-growth story. Its thesis state is intact, but recent earnings have been uneven and the evidence snapshot carries low confidence.
The valuation evidence points to HTH being cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility; the snapshot does not provide enough detail to pin down what the market assumes beyond that.
Near term, the latest quarter missed, and management execution is neutral overall, though loans and deposits grew year over year and expenses fell. Management also returned capital through dividends and share repurchases, while expense management remains mixed; these results support the multi-year thesis but do not remove the risk of uneven earnings.
The near-term downside case is a guidance cut or rate cuts from the current level, both identified as risks for HTH and Financials. The favorable case depends partly on continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers, alongside HTH sustaining its loan and deposit growth and managing expenses.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on continued core banking growth and cost control, with a recent miss and low confidence tempering the otherwise intact setup. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Earnings per share beat estimates by 30.6% in Q1 2026. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $0.64 in Q4 2026 |
Diluted EPS: $0.44 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.64 per share. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Oct 23, 20260.44 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Improve cash flow from operations to positive territory | A primary condition in Hilltop Holdings Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is > 0 USD. | Under Pressure | cash flow remains negative through 2026-Q4 | Cash from operations: $507.821M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: > 0 USD. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 23, 2026507,821,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue at or above $294 million in Q4 2026 | A primary condition in Hilltop Holdings Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $294 million. | Under Pressure | revenue falls below $294 million in Q4 2026 | Revenue: $191.821M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $294 million. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Oct 23, 2026191,821,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Continue active share buybacks, at least $47.5 million in Q1 2026 | A supporting condition in Hilltop Holdings Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $47 million per quarter. | Intact | quarterly share repurchases fall below $40 million in 2026 | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.40 → $2.33 · observed estimates
$1.30B → $1.25B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.40 | $1,296,761,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.40 | $1,298,761,925 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.40 | $1,296,694,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.42 | $1,294,415,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.42 | $1,290,969,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.46 | $1,292,603,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.46 | $1,292,603,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.46 | $1,292,603,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.46 | $1,295,640,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.46 | $1,292,603,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.46 | $1,295,640,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.46 | $1,292,603,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.46 | $1,292,603,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.46 | $1,292,603,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.46 | $1,295,640,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.46 | $1,295,640,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.49 | $1,291,702,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.49 | $1,291,702,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.49 | $1,291,702,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.46 | $1,295,640,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.46 | $1,295,640,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.46 | $1,295,640,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.46 | $1,295,640,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.46 | $1,295,640,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.46 | $1,295,640,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.46 | $1,295,640,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.49 | $1,291,690,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.49 | $1,291,690,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.49 | $1,291,690,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.49 | $1,291,690,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.49 | $1,291,690,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.49 | $1,291,690,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.49 | $1,291,690,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.49 | $1,291,690,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.49 | $1,291,690,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.49 | $1,291,690,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.49 | $1,291,690,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.49 | $1,291,690,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.49 | $1,291,690,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.49 | $1,291,690,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.49 | $1,291,690,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.49 | $1,291,690,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.49 | $1,291,690,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.49 | $1,291,690,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.49 | $1,291,690,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.49 | $1,291,690,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.49 | $1,291,690,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.49 | $1,291,690,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.49 | $1,291,690,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.49 | $1,291,690,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.49 | $1,291,690,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.49 | $1,291,690,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.49 | $1,291,690,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.49 | $1,291,690,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.49 | $1,291,690,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.49 | $1,291,690,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.49 | $1,291,690,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.49 | $1,291,690,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.49 | $1,291,690,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.49 | $1,291,690,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.50 | $1,290,438,225 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.50 | $1,290,438,225 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.50 | $1,290,438,225 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.50 | $1,290,438,225 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.50 | $1,290,438,225 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.50 | $1,290,438,225 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.50 | $1,290,438,225 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.50 | $1,290,438,225 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.50 | $1,290,438,225 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.50 | $1,290,438,225 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.50 | $1,290,438,225 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.50 | $1,290,438,225 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.50 | $1,290,438,225 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.50 | $1,290,438,225 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.48 | $1,288,616,950 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.48 | $1,288,616,950 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.48 | $1,288,616,950 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.48 | $1,288,616,950 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.48 | $1,288,616,950 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.48 | $1,288,616,950 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.48 | $1,288,616,950 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.48 | $1,288,616,950 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.48 | $1,288,616,950 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.48 | $1,288,616,950 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.48 | $1,288,616,950 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.48 | $1,288,616,950 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.48 | $1,288,616,950 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.48 | $1,288,616,950 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.48 | $1,288,616,950 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.48 | $1,288,616,950 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.48 | $1,288,616,950 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.44 | $1,271,371,875 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.44 | $1,271,371,875 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.44 | $1,271,371,875 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.44 | $1,271,371,875 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.44 | $1,271,371,875 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.44 | $1,271,371,875 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.44 | $1,271,371,875 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.44 | $1,271,371,875 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.44 | $1,271,371,875 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.44 | $1,271,371,875 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.33 | $1,245,662,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.33 | $1,245,662,500 | 4 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings5 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.