Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - ConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-09-04
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - ConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Research Workspace
Put HTH beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Regional Banks is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Revenue at or above $294 million in Q4 2026: FY26 rev guide $315.8M vs $294M target.
View ThesisRevenue is contracting — down about 5% over the past year.
View GrowthRanks in the weakest quality tier of its industry — roughly the bottom 37%, softest on free-cash-flow margins.
View QualityManagement screens weak on capital allocation, earnings delivery.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskHTH's growth relies on maintaining revenue at or above $294 million in Q4 2026. Recent performance shows steady revenue growth, with a 6.5% year-over-year increase in Q2 FY2026 and a beat in earnings. HTH trades at 1.1× price-to-book, below the 1.2× peer median, indicating modest expectations. If HTH cuts guidance on the next call, that could negatively impact the stock. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades. Our read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-04. HTH is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 4 analysts currently covering HTH (as of Sep 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
Continue this research
Compare HTH with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
Free account required to save the handoff. No credit card.
| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HTH Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Regional Banks — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put HTH next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Threatens: Share repurchase program
Director stock sale may signal lack of confidence.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.