Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
H WORLD GROUP LTD (HTHT)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$50.22-0.02%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
20.30 → 20.47 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HTHT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS of at least $18.69 in FY26 and $21.63 in FY27 | Earnings per share rise to nearly $19 this year and $22 next year. | Intact | EPS falls below $18.50 in FY26 or below $21 in FY27 | Diluted EPS: CNY 4.90 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $18.69 in FY26 and >= $21.63 in FY27. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 17, 20264.9 CNY/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 16, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-sensitive, cyclical business exposure rather than a clearly established durable compounder or turnaround in the available evidence. The thesis state is insufficient: there is not enough recent financial-performance history to assess it, and confidence in the overall read is low.
The evidence does not provide a valuation comparison or a clear account of market expectations, so whether HTHT looks cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. Priced-in fragility is low because no fragility gates fired, but that does not establish that expectations are modest.
Near term, the risk label has eased from elevated to moderate, and the stated earnings-miss probability is low, though recent earnings surprises have been erratic and industry peers have missed lately. Over the multi-year view, the evidence does not establish a company-specific fundamentals trend; the main stated sensitivity is to sector momentum and economic growth.
A favorable sector setup depends on hotel bellwethers MAR, HLT, and IHG continuing to beat earnings and guide higher. If they miss or guide lower, that tailwind could fade; materially slower GDP growth, such as below 2% from the stated 2.1%, is another risk for growth-sensitive businesses.
For the next 1 to 3 years, HTHT’s long-term thesis is unresolved on this evidence, with moderate risk and meaningful dependence on hotel-sector signals and economic growth. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain positive earnings revisions and operational beats |
| Operational beats show improving execution. |
| Broken |
| earnings revisions turn negative and operational misses occur consecutively |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth to at least $26.9 billion in FY26 | A primary condition in H WORLD GROUP LTD's published investment case. The stated target is >= $26.96 billion. | Intact | revenue falls below $26 billion in FY26 | Revenue: CNY 7.121B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $26.96 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 17, 20267,121,000,000 CNY · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$20.21 → $20.47 · observed estimates
$28.57B → $29.08B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $20.21 | $28,569,447,285 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-07-25 | $20.21 | $28,569,447,285 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-07-26 | $20.21 | $28,569,447,285 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-07-27 | $20.21 | $28,569,447,285 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-07-28 | $20.23 | $28,596,565,887 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-07-29 | $20.23 | $28,596,565,887 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-07-30 | $20.23 | $28,596,565,887 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-07-31 | $20.12 | $28,557,639,301 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-01 | $20.12 | $28,557,639,301 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-02 | $20.12 | $28,557,639,301 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-03 | $20.11 | $28,589,389,597 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-04 | $20.11 | $28,589,389,597 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-05 | $20.11 | $28,589,389,597 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-06 | $21.48 | $28,425,173,910 | 6 / 20 |
| 2026-08-07 | $20.11 | $28,589,389,597 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-08 | $21.48 | $28,425,173,910 | 6 / 20 |
| 2026-08-09 | $21.48 | $28,425,173,910 | 6 / 20 |
| 2026-08-10 | $21.48 | $28,425,173,910 | 6 / 20 |
| 2026-08-12 | $21.48 | $28,415,270,710 | 6 / 20 |
| 2026-08-13 | $20.11 | $28,589,389,597 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-14 | $20.11 | $28,589,389,597 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-15 | $20.11 | $28,589,389,597 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-16 | $20.11 | $28,589,389,597 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-17 | $20.11 | $28,589,389,597 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-18 | $20.11 | $28,589,389,597 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-19 | $20.11 | $28,589,389,597 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-20 | $20.45 | $28,916,659,622 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-21 | $20.46 | $28,978,585,150 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-22 | $20.41 | $28,977,936,983 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-23 | $20.41 | $28,977,936,983 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-24 | $20.41 | $28,977,936,983 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-25 | $20.48 | $29,017,468,965 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-26 | $20.51 | $29,058,307,602 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-27 | $20.51 | $29,058,307,602 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-28 | $20.51 | $29,058,307,602 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-29 | $20.56 | $29,084,048,090 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-30 | $20.56 | $29,083,369,009 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-31 | $20.56 | $29,083,369,009 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-01 | $20.58 | $29,179,012,779 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-02 | $20.57 | $29,157,439,373 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-03 | $20.56 | $29,139,255,335 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-04 | $20.56 | $29,139,255,335 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-05 | $20.56 | $29,139,242,253 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-06 | $20.49 | $29,139,242,253 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-07 | $20.49 | $29,139,242,253 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-08 | $20.52 | $29,176,479,649 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-09 | $20.52 | $29,182,359,238 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-10 | $20.52 | $29,186,278,963 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-11 | $20.53 | $29,192,158,552 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-12 | $20.55 | $29,217,636,771 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-13 | $20.55 | $29,217,636,771 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-14 | $20.55 | $29,217,636,771 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-15 | $20.53 | $29,194,118,415 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-16 | $20.53 | $29,190,198,689 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-17 | $20.52 | $29,178,439,512 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-18 | $20.52 | $29,178,439,512 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-19 | $20.52 | $29,178,439,512 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-20 | $20.53 | $29,199,998,004 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-21 | $20.29 | $28,856,206,578 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-22 | $20.30 | $28,870,614,853 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-23 | $20.31 | $28,884,267,504 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-24 | $20.31 | $28,883,270,562 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-25 | $20.26 | $28,814,770,337 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-26 | $20.28 | $28,838,082,618 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-27 | $20.28 | $28,838,082,618 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-28 | $20.30 | $28,861,648,764 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-29 | $20.26 | $28,817,125,332 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-30 | $20.28 | $28,841,870,081 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-01 | $20.31 | $28,875,965,605 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-02 | $20.30 | $28,849,437,383 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-03 | $20.30 | $28,853,998,968 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-04 | $20.30 | $28,853,998,968 | 5 / 13 |
| 2026-10-05 | $20.30 | $28,853,884,211 | 5 / 13 |
| 2026-10-06 | $20.30 | $28,853,884,211 | 5 / 13 |
| 2026-10-07 | $20.33 | $28,888,757,636 | 5 / 13 |
| 2026-10-08 | $20.33 | $28,882,945,398 | 5 / 13 |
| 2026-10-09 | $20.33 | $28,874,037,821 | 5 / 13 |
| 2026-10-10 | $20.33 | $28,874,037,821 | 5 / 13 |
| 2026-10-11 | $20.33 | $28,872,100,616 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-12 | $20.33 | $28,867,909,347 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-13 | $20.36 | $28,915,969,771 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-14 | $20.38 | $28,935,807,619 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-15 | $20.38 | $28,935,663,755 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-16 | $20.38 | $28,937,390,124 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-17 | $20.38 | $28,937,390,124 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-18 | $20.38 | $28,945,138,789 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-19 | $20.38 | $28,945,138,789 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-20 | $20.40 | $28,970,321,951 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-21 | $20.42 | $28,995,505,113 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-22 | $20.42 | $29,020,975,062 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-23 | $20.42 | $29,011,283,960 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-24 | $20.42 | $29,011,283,960 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-25 | $20.42 | $29,011,283,960 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-26 | $20.42 | $29,011,283,960 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-27 | $20.42 | $29,011,283,960 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-28 | $20.47 | $29,083,772,921 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-10-29 | $20.50 | $29,118,932,537 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-10-30 | $20.49 | $29,105,341,890 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-10-31 | $20.51 | $29,140,289,268 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-11-01 | $20.51 | $29,140,289,268 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-11-02 | $20.54 | $29,171,353,605 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-11-03 | $20.54 | $29,183,002,731 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-11-04 | $20.47 | $29,082,043,637 | 6 / 13 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 18 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.