Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Heartland Express, Inc. (HTLD)
NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-11-05
$10.15-5.32%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.52 → 0.44 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HTLD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Positive cash flow from operations to fund investments and debt paydown | Cash from operations rose to $23.2 million in 2026-Q1. | Improving | Cash from operations falls below $10M per quarter over next year | Cash from operations: $0 FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: positive cash flow from operations >= $20M per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 21, 20260 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a trucking-sector recovery story with some turnaround features, not yet a proven durable compounder. The multi-year view depends on continued operating improvement, while current results remain loss-making and the thesis is on watch.
The valuation evidence points to HTLD as cheap versus peers, and valuation has fallen sharply in the recent period. The priced-in tag is justified with low fragility, but the negative expectations gap suggests that the market is not assuming a smooth recovery; valuation model confidence is medium.
Near term, the latest earnings were in line, while recent financial performance remains below the industry cohort and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Over the multi-year view, the operating ratio has improved but remains above management’s 85% goal, debt has declined with a debt-free milestone still ahead, and CFI integration has lifted operating income despite lower quarterly revenue.
The key company test is whether HTLD can keep improving operating efficiency, reduce remaining acquisition-related debt, and sustain the CFI operating improvement. Near-term expectations could weaken if HTLD cuts guidance; sector conditions could help or hurt depending on whether ODFL, XPO, and KNX continue to report strong results and guidance.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, HTLD’s thesis rests on execution in a still-loss-making business and a sector that currently faces headwinds. The improvement is real but incomplete, so the long-term thesis remains on watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It reduced acquisition debt from $494 million to $150 million. |
| Intact |
| Acquisition-related debt remains above $50M at end of 2027 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Despite the operating loss during the quarter, we continued to have positive cash flows from operations to invest in our fleet, drivers, terminal infrastructure, and to reduce remaining acquisition-related debt, including elimination of all Smith Transport acquisition-related debt and equipment leases.” “During the third quarter of 2026, we continued to pay down acquisition-related debt and repurchase shares of our common stock.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.02 per share | The company pays a steady $0.02 quarterly dividend. | Intact | Dividend cut or suspension occurs within next year | Dividend per share: $0.02 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: quarterly dividend = $0.02 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 10, 20260.02 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Company continues its commitment to stockholders through the payment of cash dividends.” “The Company continues its commitment to stockholders through the payment of cash dividends.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Operating ratio improves toward 85.0% or lower | Heartland Express is improving its operating ratio from 106.8% to 101.9%. | Improving | Operating ratio remains above 95% by end of 2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We are pleased with our operational improvements as we continue toward our foundational goal of an operating ratio of 85.0% or lower.” “We are pleased with our operational improvements and profitability as we continue toward our foundational goal of an operating ratio of 85.0% or lower and return to a debt-free balance sheet.” Operating income was $16.549 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.55 → $0.44 · observed estimates
$0.82B → $0.75B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.55 | $821,699,560 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.56 | $791,859,644 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.55 | $821,699,560 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.56 | $791,859,644 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.56 | $791,859,644 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.56 | $791,859,644 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.55 | $821,699,560 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.55 | $821,699,560 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.55 | $802,332,460 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.55 | $821,699,560 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.50 | $791,465,282 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.55 | $809,362,540 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.50 | $790,790,030 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.50 | $790,790,030 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.50 | $791,465,282 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.50 | $791,465,282 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.50 | $791,465,282 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.50 | $787,362,150 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.50 | $791,465,282 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.50 | $791,465,282 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.50 | $791,465,282 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.50 | $791,465,282 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.50 | $791,465,282 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.50 | $791,465,282 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.50 | $791,465,282 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.50 | $791,465,282 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.52 | $787,444,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.52 | $787,444,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.52 | $787,444,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.52 | $787,444,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.52 | $787,444,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.52 | $787,444,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.52 | $787,444,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.52 | $787,444,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.52 | $787,444,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.52 | $787,444,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.52 | $787,444,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.52 | $787,444,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.52 | $787,444,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.52 | $787,444,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.52 | $787,444,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.52 | $787,444,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.52 | $787,444,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.52 | $787,444,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.52 | $787,444,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.52 | $787,444,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.52 | $787,444,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.52 | $787,444,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.52 | $787,444,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.52 | $787,444,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.52 | $787,444,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.52 | $787,444,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.52 | $787,444,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.52 | $787,444,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.52 | $787,444,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.52 | $787,444,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.52 | $787,444,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.52 | $767,744,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.52 | $767,744,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.52 | $767,744,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.52 | $767,744,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.52 | $767,744,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.52 | $767,744,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.52 | $767,744,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.52 | $767,744,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.52 | $767,744,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.52 | $767,744,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.52 | $767,744,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.52 | $767,744,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.52 | $767,744,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.52 | $767,744,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.52 | $767,744,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.52 | $767,744,579 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.52 | $764,704,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.52 | $764,704,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.49 | $764,704,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.51 | $766,276,899 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.51 | $766,276,899 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.51 | $766,276,899 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.51 | $766,276,899 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.51 | $766,276,899 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.51 | $766,276,899 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.51 | $766,276,899 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.51 | $766,276,899 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.51 | $766,276,899 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.51 | $766,276,899 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.51 | $766,276,899 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.51 | $766,276,899 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.47 | $774,310,770 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.46 | $751,931,249 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.46 | $751,931,249 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.46 | $751,931,249 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.46 | $751,931,249 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.46 | $751,931,249 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.46 | $751,931,249 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.44 | $748,913,792 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.44 | $748,913,792 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.44 | $748,913,792 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.44 | $748,913,792 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.44 | $748,913,792 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.44 | $748,913,792 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.44 | $748,913,792 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.44 | $748,913,792 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.44 | $748,913,792 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.