Heartland Express, Inc. (HTLD)
NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-11-05
$10.15-5.32%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HTLD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -19.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HTLD — earnings in line
Dated 2026-10-21
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On October 20, 2026 , Heartland Express, Inc. announced its unaudited financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. The press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Management linked better pricing to tight truck supply. It said new contract terms may not fully show in results until 2027.
Supportive ifA 2027 quarterly report shows customer pricing and freight volume rose. Revenue excluding fuel surcharges also rose year over year.
Worry ifA 2027 quarterly report shows no rise in customer pricing. Revenue excluding fuel surcharges remains below the same quarter of 2026.
Why it matters: The company plans fleet spending while using cash to pay down debt. Actual spending will show whether both plans stay on track.
Watch forThe year-end report puts 2026 net capital spending between $2 million and $5 million.
Also watch forThe year-end report puts 2026 net capital spending below $2 million or above $5 million.
Why it matters: Debt fell from $494.1 million in 2022 to $99.9 million. Further paydown would bring the company closer to its debt-free goal.
Supportive ifThe next report shows debt and lease obligations tied to acquisitions below $99.9 million.
Worry ifThe next report shows debt and lease obligations tied to acquisitions at or above $99.9 million.
Why it matters: Trailer sales helped Q3 results. Meeting the year-end gain range would show that sales of extra equipment stayed on plan.
Watch forThe year-end report shows 2026 gains on equipment sales of $9 million to $13 million.
Also watch forThe year-end report shows gains below $9 million or above $13 million.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$158 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $385 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,822 loss on $10,000 · 38.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.