Heartland Express, Inc. (HTLD)
NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$12.44+0.65%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HTLD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -11.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 16.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HTLD — officer change
Dated 2026-09-02
Director — James G. Pratt: The filing reports the retirement of a long-serving board member with immediate internal succession to committee roles, indicating an orderly and non-disruptive change.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect company strategy and performance. This could influence investor views.
Watch forNew CFO uses cost-saving measures. This leads to better financial results.
Also watch forThe new CFO does not improve operations. This may hurt financial performance.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss shows better profits and efficiency.
Supportive ifQ2 net loss reported less than $4.8 million.
Worry ifThe Q2 net loss is over $4.8 million. This shows ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: A bigger drop shows ongoing demand issues and problems with operations.
Worry ifQ2 operating revenue falls more than 20% compared to Q2 2025.
Less concerning ifQ2 operating revenue declines less than 20% year over year or grows.
Why it matters: Regular dividend payments show that the company is stable. They also show care for shareholders.
Watch forQuarterly dividend of $0.02 per share is declared and paid.
Also watch forDividend payment is cut or not made.
Why it matters: Less cash from operations can limit investments and raise financial risks.
Worry ifCash from operations falls below $20 million in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifCash from operations stays above $20 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping dividends shows financial strength. It helps build trust with investors.
Supportive ifThe company will pay a regular dividend in Q2.
Worry ifNo dividend is declared in Q2.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows good cost control. This can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 operating income improves from last year. This shows less loss.
Worry ifQ2 operating income gets worse or stays negative compared to Q1.
Why it matters: If revenue stabilizes or improves, it shows recovery. This can help future growth.
Supportive ifQ2 operating revenue exceeds $176.3 million, showing growth from Q1 2026.
Worry ifIf Q2 operating revenue is below $176.3 million, it shows ongoing revenue problems.
Why it matters: A strong operating ratio shows better cost management and efficiency. It is key to reaching the goal of 85%.
Supportive ifQ3 operating ratio is 90% or better. This shows strong cost control.
Worry ifQ3 operating ratio stays above 90%. This means there are ongoing cost challenges.
Why it matters: Reducing debt is crucial for financial health and supports future investments. It shows progress in capital allocation.
Supportive ifAcquisition-related debt falls below $130 million. This shows strong efforts to reduce debt.
Worry ifAcquisition-related debt rises or stays above $134.9 million. This shows progress has stalled.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow supports investments and debt reduction. It shows operational strength.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $40 million for Q3 2026.
Worry ifCash flow from operations falls below $30 million for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping dividends shows financial stability. It shows a commitment to shareholders and cash flow strength.
Supportive ifThe company declares and pays a $0.02 dividend in Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe company suspends or cuts the dividend payment in Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$158 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $374 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,756 loss on $10,000 · 27.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.