H2O America (HTO)
NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated WaterSnapshot 2026-09-04
$64.32-0.37%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated WaterSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HTO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 10.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers
HTO — officer change
Dated 2026-06-12
null — Kristen Johnson: Ms. Johnson separated from the Company with a severance package.
Why it matters: Revenue growth trends show if the company can keep or improve its financial health.
Watch forQ2 2026 revenue growth reported at or above 9% year-over-year.
Also watch forQ2 2026 revenue growth is below 4% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Revenue growth trends show how well the company adapts in a changing market.
Watch forRevenue growth in Q2 is better than Q1, showing positive momentum.
Also watch forRevenue growth in Q2 drops compared to Q1, suggesting ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: Closing the Quadvest deal is important for H2O's customer growth and revenue.
Supportive ifThe Quadvest acquisition closes by early Q4 2026 as planned.
Worry ifThe acquisition is delayed beyond Q4 2026 or fails to close.
Why it matters: Keeping EPS guidance at $3.08-$3.18 shows confidence in finances. This affects investor trust.
Supportive ifManagement reaffirms 2026 EPS guidance during the Q2 earnings call on July 27, 2026.
Worry ifManagement lowers EPS guidance below $3.08 during the Q2 earnings call.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$94 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $236 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,225 loss on $10,000 · 12.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Not hitting the capital spending target may slow future growth and upgrades.
Worry ifTotal capital spending was below $483 million for 2026.
Less concerning ifTotal capital spending was at or above $483 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Steady revenue growth shows good rate changes and customer use. This helps long-term growth.
Supportive ifOperating revenue grows over 6% from last year in Q3.
Worry ifOperating revenue growth is below 6% from last year in Q3.
Why it matters: Confirming EPS guidance shows the company is on track for its financial goals. This is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifManagement confirms Q3 EPS guidance remains within the $3.08-$3.18 range.
Worry ifManagement lowers EPS guidance to below $3.08 or above $3.18.
Why it matters: Hitting this investment target shows a commitment to infrastructure and growth. This will affect future revenue.
Supportive ifBy the end of 2026, $483 million in spending on projects is expected.
Worry ifCapital expenditures are far below the $483 million target by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Approval of rate changes would help revenue growth and support the company's goals.
Supportive ifConnecticut and Maine regulators will approve the rate changes by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifRegulators may deny or delay the rate changes, which could hurt revenue growth.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how well H2O America is performing. It is key for understanding future growth.
Watch forEarnings per share (EPS) beats analyst expectations by more than 10%.
Also watch forEPS falls short of analyst expectations by more than 10%.
Why it matters: If utility sector revenue growth speeds up, it could help H2O America. It shows the market is improving.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth moves back toward 5% or higher.
Worry ifSector revenue growth stays below 5%.
Why it matters: Staying within this range shows H2O America is on track to meet its full-year earnings target.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted diluted EPS reported within the range of $3.08-$3.18.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted diluted EPS falls outside the range of $3.08-$3.18.