Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Hertz (HTZ)
NASDAQIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$1.79-20.80%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HTZ yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Improve cash from operations above $20 million quarterly | A primary condition in Hertz's published investment case. The stated target is cash from operations >= $20 million per quarter. | Under Pressure | cash from operations falls below $10 million | Cash from operations: $381M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: cash from operations >= $20 million per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 2026381,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
HTZ is a high-risk operating recovery story in a sector facing headwinds, rather than a proven durable compounder. Its thesis is in a watch state: recent revenue measures improved, but financial performance remains weak relative to its industry cohort.
The evidence characterizes HTZ as cheap versus peers, with a small premium also recorded in the valuation data; model confidence is low. The priced-in signal is tagged as justified, and its fragility tier is low, so the snapshot does not indicate concentrated fragility in expectations.
Near term, revenue and pricing measures show progress: Q2 revenue rose 10% year over year, while revenue per day and revenue per unit increased. Profitability is less consistent: net income swung from losses in Q4 and Q1 to income in Q2, and cost-control results remain mixed; a guidance cut on the next call is a stated risk.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis hinges on sustaining commercial progress while improving costs and turning it into more consistent profitability. Near-term signals include HTZ’s next guidance and whether sector bellwethers keep beating and raising guidance or instead miss and lower it.
HTZ has evidence of revenue progress, but its loss-making history, mixed execution, and weak results relative to peers leave the multi-year view uncertain. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Grow Oro Mobility platform for new vehicle markets | The company launched Oro Mobility to expand into new markets. | Improving | no growth or setbacks in Oro Mobility platform | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Reduce operating losses toward break-even | Operating losses improved from -$525 million to -$304 million in the same period. | Under Pressure | operating loss worsens beyond -$400 million | Operating income: $171M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating loss > -$304 million but improving. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 2026171,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth near $2 billion per quarter | A primary condition in Hertz's published investment case. The stated target is >= $2.0 billion quarterly revenue. | Under Pressure | quarterly revenue falls below $1.8 billion | Revenue: $2.617B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.0 billion quarterly revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 5, 20262,617,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.06 → $-0.08 · observed estimates
$9.43B → $9.55B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.06 | $9,431,237,676 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.10 | $9,426,699,090 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.28 | $9,422,178,460 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.08 | $9,426,653,803 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.08 | $9,426,653,803 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.09 | $9,426,653,803 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.08 | $9,426,685,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.12 | $9,422,610,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.11 | $9,422,621,153 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.12 | $9,422,610,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.12 | $9,422,610,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.11 | $9,422,621,153 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.11 | $9,422,621,153 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.11 | $9,422,621,153 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.11 | $9,422,621,153 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.11 | $9,422,621,153 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.11 | $9,529,516,900 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.11 | $9,422,621,153 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.10 | $9,550,191,900 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.11 | $9,422,621,153 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.11 | $9,422,621,153 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.11 | $9,422,621,153 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.11 | $9,422,621,153 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.11 | $9,422,621,153 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.11 | $9,422,621,153 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.11 | $9,422,621,153 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.06 | $9,567,017,776 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.06 | $9,567,017,776 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.06 | $9,567,017,776 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.06 | $9,567,017,776 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.06 | $9,567,017,776 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.06 | $9,567,017,776 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.06 | $9,567,017,776 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.06 | $9,567,017,776 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.06 | $9,567,017,776 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.06 | $9,567,017,776 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.06 | $9,567,017,776 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.06 | $9,567,017,776 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.06 | $9,567,017,776 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.06 | $9,567,017,776 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.06 | $9,567,017,776 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.06 | $9,567,017,776 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.06 | $9,567,017,776 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.06 | $9,567,017,776 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.06 | $9,567,017,776 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.06 | $9,567,017,776 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.06 | $9,567,017,776 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.06 | $9,567,017,776 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.06 | $9,567,017,776 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.06 | $9,557,775,834 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.06 | $9,557,775,834 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.06 | $9,557,775,834 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.06 | $9,557,775,834 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.06 | $9,557,775,834 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.06 | $9,557,775,834 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.06 | $9,557,775,834 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.06 | $9,557,775,834 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.06 | $9,557,775,834 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.06 | $9,557,775,834 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.06 | $9,557,775,834 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.06 | $9,557,775,834 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.06 | $9,557,775,834 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.06 | $9,557,775,834 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.06 | $9,557,775,834 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.06 | $9,557,775,834 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.06 | $9,557,775,834 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.06 | $9,557,775,834 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.06 | $9,557,775,834 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.06 | $9,557,775,834 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.06 | $9,557,775,834 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.06 | $9,557,775,834 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.06 | $9,557,775,834 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.06 | $9,557,775,834 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.08 | $9,544,163,334 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.08 | $9,544,163,334 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.08 | $9,544,163,334 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.05 | $9,528,138,556 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.05 | $9,528,138,556 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.05 | $9,528,138,556 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.05 | $9,528,138,556 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.05 | $9,528,138,556 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.05 | $9,528,138,556 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.05 | $9,528,138,556 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.06 | $9,545,123,003 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.06 | $9,545,123,003 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.06 | $9,545,123,003 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.06 | $9,545,123,003 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.06 | $9,545,123,003 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.06 | $9,545,123,003 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.06 | $9,545,123,003 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.06 | $9,545,123,003 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.06 | $9,545,123,003 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.06 | $9,545,123,003 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.06 | $9,545,123,003 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.06 | $9,545,123,003 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.06 | $9,545,123,003 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.06 | $9,545,123,003 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.06 | $9,545,123,003 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.08 | $9,545,123,003 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.08 | $9,545,123,003 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.08 | $9,545,123,003 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.08 | $9,545,123,003 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.08 | $9,545,123,003 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-0.08 | $9,545,123,003 | 4 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.