Hertz (HTZ)
NASDAQIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.26+9.18%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HTZ
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers
HTZ — COO transition
Dated 2026-09-10
President — Michael Moore: Two senior executives were promoted to new President roles as part of a strategic operating model change, representing internal succession rather than a loss of leadership.
Why it matters: Recalls cut Q2 adjusted EBITDA by about $30 million and affected nearly 15,000 cars. Lower recall costs could help results.
Worry ifIn Q3, recall costs cut adjusted EBITDA by $30 million or more again. Or recalls affect at least 15,000 cars on average.
Less concerning ifQ3 recall costs cut adjusted EBITDA by less than $30 million, and fewer cars are affected than in Q2.
Why it matters: Hertz posted $81 million in Q2, above its revised guide. Another increase would show that its recovery is gaining ground.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted Corporate EBITDA is over $81 million and grows year over year.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted Corporate EBITDA is below $81 million or falls year over year.
Why it matters: Oro plans to start its first self-driving fleet partnership later in 2026. A launch would show progress beyond driver-led fleet work.
Supportive ifOro or Uber confirms service has begun in the San Francisco Bay Area. Lucid cars use Nuro technology.
Worry ifOro or Uber reports that the service has been delayed beyond 2026 or canceled.
Why it matters: Higher daily rates and revenue per car helped lift Q2 revenue 10% with a smaller fleet. A reversal would weaken that growth signal.
Supportive ifQ3 RPD and RPU both rise year over year, and RPU stays above $1,500 per month.
Worry ifQ3 RPD or RPU falls year over year, or RPU drops below $1,500 per month.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$370 on $10,000 · ±3.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $716 loss on $10,000 · 7.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,067 loss on $10,000 · 80.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.