Hertz (HTZ)
NASDAQIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.30+1.32%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HTZ
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -13.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HTZ — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-08-28
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information required by
Why it matters: Higher utilization rates mean better fleet management and more demand. This can increase revenue.
Supportive ifVehicle usage rates were above 80% in Q2.
Worry ifVehicle usage rates fell below 75% in Q2.
Why it matters: This offering could impact Hertz's liquidity and market perception. Investors will watch how it affects stock price and investor confidence.
Watch forThe offering closes well. There is no big drop in stock price after.
Also watch forThe offering fails to close or results in a significant drop in stock price.
Why it matters: Better EBITDA means Hertz is running its operations more efficiently. It is also controlling costs.
Supportive ifAdjusted Corporate EBITDA is more than $100 million in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted Corporate EBITDA is less than $80 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Steady revenue growth shows Hertz's rental business is strong. Their pricing strategies are working.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 5% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$370 on $10,000 · ±3.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $750 loss on $10,000 · 7.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,067 loss on $10,000 · 80.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The new AV partnership with Uber may prove Hertz's plan in the mobility market.
Supportive ifThe first self-driving car partnership with Uber starts as planned in the San Francisco area.
Worry ifThe partnership launch is delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: Oro Mobility's success may help future sales and market share.
Supportive ifOro Mobility signs at least one major partnership or contract within six months.
Worry ifNo big partnerships or contracts have been announced in the last six months.
Why it matters: Oro Mobility's success could show if Hertz is effectively expanding into new markets. This is key for future growth.
Supportive ifOro Mobility will add more than 5% to total revenue next quarter.
Worry ifOro Mobility does not make any revenue next quarter.
Why it matters: Details on the buyback could signal confidence in Hertz's financial position and support stock price.
Supportive ifThe company announced the first group of shares bought back in the buyback program.
Worry ifNo updates on the buyback program in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Better cash flow would show Hertz is financially healthy and operates well.
Supportive ifCash from operations improves to over $200 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations remains below $20 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Achieving this target would show strong pricing power and support long-term growth goals.
Supportive ifQ3 Revenue per Unit (RPU) exceeds $1,500.
Worry ifQ3 Revenue per Unit (RPU) falls below $1,500.