Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Hub Group, Inc. (HUBG)
NASDAQIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$25.08-6.97%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.79 → 1.57 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HUBG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Keep capital spending between $35M and $45M in 2026 | It plans to keep capital spending near $40 million. | Intact | Capital spending exceeds $45 million in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $8.71M FY2025-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $35M to $45M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 5, 20258,710,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a logistics business with robust earnings quality, but a volatile management record and an industry backdrop marked as a headwind. The 1-3 year thesis is intact, and the signal recently improved, though the share price reaction has been down.
HUBG is marked cheap versus peers, with a negative expectations gap, meaning expectations appear subdued relative to the valuation model. The priced-in assessment is justified, and fragility is low, but confidence in the valuation model is medium.
Near term, recent financial performance is neutral, while the latest event list includes an earnings beat and the signal has turned favorable. Management’s 2026 revenue and capital spending targets remain under watch; the more serious concern is that delayed filings and restatements are not complete, despite a stated Q4 2026 goal.
The multi-year view depends in part on management completing restatements and restoring SEC filing compliance, while delivering its stated revenue target. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued strong results and higher guidance from UPS, FDX, and EXPD would support the sector backdrop, while weaker results from those companies could remove that support.
The long-term thesis remains intact, but elevated compliance and sector risks make execution important over the next 1-3 years. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Operating cash flow was about $194 million in 2025. |
| Broken |
| Operating cash flow falls below $150 million next year |
Cash from operations: $28.097M FY2025-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $194 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 5, 202528,097,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete financial restatements and regain SEC compliance | The company works to fix financial reports and regain SEC compliance. | Under Pressure | Failure to file restated financials by Sept 14, 2026 | Restated financials not filed by Sept 14, 2026 target Nasdaq initiated delisting on Sept 17, 2026, due to non-compliance with listing rules following missed filing deadlines. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Company has determined that it needs additional time to complete the restatements and related audits of its financial statements and expects to complete such filings in the fourth quarter of 2026.” “As a result, the Company expects to receive a Staff Delisting Determination letter from the Listing Qualifications Department of Nasdaq notifying the Company that its Class A common stock will be delisted.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Achieve revenue near $3.8 billion in 2026 | A primary condition in Hub Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$3.8 billion. | Intact | Revenue falls below $3.65 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $934.496M FY2025-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$3.8 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 5, 2025934,496,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.98 → $1.57 · observed estimates
$4.13B → $4.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.98 | $4,132,300,000 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.98 | $4,132,300,000 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.01 | $4,055,733,333 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.01 | $4,055,733,333 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.01 | $4,055,733,333 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.01 | $4,055,733,333 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.01 | $4,055,733,333 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.01 | $4,055,733,333 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.01 | $4,055,733,333 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.01 | $4,055,733,333 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.01 | $4,055,733,333 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.01 | $4,055,733,333 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.01 | $4,055,733,333 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.01 | $4,055,733,333 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.01 | $4,055,733,333 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.01 | $4,055,733,333 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.01 | $4,055,733,333 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.01 | $4,055,733,333 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.01 | $4,055,733,333 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.01 | $4,055,733,333 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.01 | $4,055,733,333 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.01 | $4,055,733,333 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.01 | $4,055,733,333 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.01 | $4,055,733,333 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.01 | $4,055,733,333 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.01 | $4,055,733,333 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.86 | $4,055,733,333 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.86 | $4,055,733,333 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.86 | $4,045,100,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.90 | $4,045,100,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.90 | $4,045,100,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.90 | $4,045,100,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.90 | $4,045,100,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.90 | $4,045,100,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.90 | $4,045,100,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.90 | $4,045,100,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.90 | $4,045,100,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.90 | $4,045,100,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.90 | $4,045,100,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.90 | $4,045,100,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.90 | $4,045,100,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.90 | $4,045,100,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.90 | $4,045,100,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.90 | $4,045,100,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.90 | $4,045,100,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.90 | $4,045,100,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.90 | $4,045,100,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.90 | $4,045,100,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.10 | $4,039,914,930 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.10 | $4,039,914,930 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.10 | $4,039,914,930 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.10 | $4,039,914,930 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.10 | $4,039,914,930 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.10 | $4,039,914,930 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.10 | $4,039,914,930 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.10 | $4,039,914,930 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.93 | $4,079,936,197 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.93 | $4,079,936,197 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.93 | $4,079,936,197 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.93 | $4,079,936,197 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.93 | $4,079,936,197 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.76 | $4,079,936,197 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.76 | $4,079,936,197 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.76 | $4,079,936,197 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.76 | $4,079,936,197 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.76 | $4,079,936,197 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.76 | $4,079,936,197 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.66 | $4,079,936,197 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.66 | $4,060,236,197 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.66 | $4,060,236,197 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.66 | $4,060,236,197 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.66 | $4,060,236,197 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.66 | $4,060,236,197 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.79 | $4,014,113,173 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.57 | $4,000,213,173 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.57 | $4,000,213,173 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.57 | $4,000,213,173 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.57 | $4,000,213,173 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.57 | $4,000,213,173 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.57 | $4,000,213,173 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.57 | $4,000,213,173 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.57 | $4,000,213,173 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.57 | $4,000,213,173 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.57 | $4,000,213,173 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.57 | $4,000,213,173 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.57 | $4,000,213,173 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.57 | $4,000,213,173 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.57 | $4,000,213,173 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.57 | $4,000,213,173 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.57 | $4,000,213,173 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.57 | $4,000,213,173 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.57 | $4,000,213,173 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.57 | $4,000,213,173 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.57 | $4,000,213,173 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.57 | $4,000,213,173 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.57 | $4,000,213,173 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.57 | $4,000,213,173 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.57 | $4,000,213,173 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.57 | $4,000,213,173 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.57 | $4,000,213,173 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.57 | $4,000,213,173 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.57 | $4,000,213,173 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.57 | $4,000,213,173 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-05 | $1.57 | $4,000,213,173 | 3 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.