Hub Group, Inc. (HUBG)
NASDAQIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$36.68+0.38%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HUBG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -6.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HUBG — legal / regulatory event — Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standar…
Dated 2026-08-24
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. On August 20, 2026, Hub Group, Inc. (the “Company”) received an expected notice (the “Notice”) from the listing qualifications staff of The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC (“Nasdaq”) notifying the Company that, as a result of the Company not having timely filed its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 (the “Q226 Form 10-Q”), it is not in compliance with Nasdaq Listing Rule…
Why it matters: Better cash flows show stronger financial health and better operations.
Supportive ifOperating cash flows for Q2 2026 show an increase compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifOperating cash flows decline compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Regaining compliance with Nasdaq is crucial for maintaining the stock's listing.
Supportive ifHub Group files the Form 10-Q by September 14, 2026, regaining compliance.
Worry ifHub Group fails to file the Form 10-Q by September 14, 2026.
Why it matters: Staying within capex guidance shows good financial management. Going over it may show bad capital use.
Watch forCapital spending will be between $35 million and $45 million for 2026.
Also watch forCapital spending will be more than $45 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Intermodal volume growth is critical for revenue. A decline would signal deeper issues in demand.
Supportive ifIntermodal volume grew over 1% from last year in Q1 2026.
Worry ifIntermodal volume grew less than 1% from last year in Q1 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$168 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $411 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,561 loss on $10,000 · 35.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The revenue guidance of $3.65 to $3.95 billion shows management's belief in growth.
Supportive ifManagement confirms revenue guidance in the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement lowers revenue guidance from the current range.
Why it matters: Ongoing accounting reviews may change financial results and affect investor trust. We need clarity for future performance.
Worry ifHub Group announces resolution of accounting issues with a clear path forward.
Less concerning ifThere may be more delays or bad news from Ernst & Young about accounting practices.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating this guidance shows the company can grow and stay stable.
Supportive ifReported revenue for 2026 falls within the $3.65 to $3.95 billion range.
Worry ifReported revenue for 2026 is below $3.65 billion.
Why it matters: The notice of delisting could impact investor confidence and stock price. Legal updates are critical.
Worry ifThe company fixes the delisting notice and files the overdue 10-Q.
Less concerning ifThe company does not fix the delisting notice and may face more penalties.
Why it matters: This guidance shows Hub Group can stabilize and grow revenue after a drop.
Supportive ifHub Group reports revenue within the guided range for Q1 2026.
Worry ifRevenue reported for Q1 2026 falls below $3.65 billion.
Why it matters: Stabilizing revenue is important after a drop in 2025. It shows new strategies work.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue shows an increase compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue declines compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: The new CFO's way of reporting finances may affect investor trust and stock performance.
Watch forThe new CFO makes changes. These changes help financial reporting be more accurate and faster.
Also watch forThere are ongoing problems with financial reporting under the new CFO.