Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-29 · fmp
Hawkins, Inc. (HWKN)
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-05
$152.00-2.55%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.76 → 4.74 EPS · FY ending Mar 29, 2028 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HWKN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS near $4.82 next fiscal year | Profit margins remain stable with EPS expected near $4.82 next fiscal year. | Broken | EPS falls below $4.50 next fiscal year | Diluted EPS: $1.34 per share FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $4.82. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Oct 26, 20261.34 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-29 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
HWKN is a growth-oriented materials business with an acquisition-led expansion strategy, rather than a turnaround. The long-term thesis is intact: recent financial performance is strong, management priorities are on track, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind.
HWKN is valued at a 2.25-times premium versus peers, and the valuation assessment is expensive. The evidence points to expectations for a durable premium, but the expectations-gap measure is elevated; confidence in that measure is low, and the priced-in fragility tier is low.
Near-term results show revenue up 12% year over year, with growth in all three segments; free cash flow also increased and leverage declined. These results support management’s growth, acquisition, and debt-reduction priorities, although the recent earnings miss and past deep miss make execution worth watching. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends on continued segment growth, effective Water Treatment acquisitions, and sustained cash generation with lower debt. Near term, guidance and results from sector bellwethers LIN, ECL, and SHW could support or weaken the Materials-sector tailwind.
The one-to-three-year view is intact, supported by strong recent performance and on-track execution, but the expensive valuation leaves less room for disappointment. The evidence is medium-confidence, and the thesis hinges on continued execution and sector conditions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Hawkins, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY. |
| Intact |
| YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next fiscal year |
Revenue growth: 11.9% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Oct 26, 202611.904049 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Valuation premium justified by growth | A supporting condition in Hawkins, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is PE below 30 or justified by growth. | Broken | PE remains above 34 with slowing growth | P/E (TTM): 36.80x As of 2026-11-05; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 5, 202636.8039 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.80 → $4.74 · observed estimates
$1.23B → $1.26B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.80 | $1,229,666,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.80 | $1,229,666,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.80 | $1,229,666,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.80 | $1,229,666,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.80 | $1,229,666,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.80 | $1,229,666,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.80 | $1,229,666,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.78 | $1,229,666,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.78 | $1,229,666,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.71 | $1,224,233,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.71 | $1,224,233,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.71 | $1,224,233,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.71 | $1,224,233,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.71 | $1,224,233,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.71 | $1,224,233,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.71 | $1,224,233,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.71 | $1,224,233,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.71 | $1,224,233,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.71 | $1,224,233,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.71 | $1,224,233,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.71 | $1,224,233,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.71 | $1,224,233,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.71 | $1,224,233,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.71 | $1,224,233,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.71 | $1,224,233,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.71 | $1,224,233,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.64 | $1,247,314,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.64 | $1,247,314,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.64 | $1,247,314,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.64 | $1,247,314,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.76 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.70 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.70 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.70 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.70 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.70 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.70 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.70 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.70 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.70 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.70 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.70 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.70 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.70 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.70 | $1,257,185,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.72 | $1,246,996,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.74 | $1,255,329,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.74 | $1,255,329,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.74 | $1,264,862,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.74 | $1,264,862,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.74 | $1,264,862,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.74 | $1,264,862,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.74 | $1,264,862,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-05 | $4.74 | $1,264,862,333 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 3 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.