Hawkins, Inc. (HWKN)
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$129.13-0.15%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HWKN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 73.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 64.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HWKN — officer change
Dated 2026-08-14
Director — Yi “Faith” Tang: A director resigned effective immediately but explicitly stated there were no disagreements regarding company operations or policies.
Why it matters: Earnings per share growth shows strong financial health. It means the company controls costs well.
Supportive ifQ2 diluted EPS is over $0.80. This shows good cost management and revenue growth.
Worry ifQ2 diluted EPS is under $0.70. This may show some operational problems.
Why it matters: Stable margins show good cost management. Hawkins can stay profitable even with rising costs.
Supportive ifGross profit margin stays at or above 23% in Q1 2027.
Worry ifGross profit margin falls below 22% in Q1 2027.
Why it matters: A decline in free cash flow could limit the company's ability to invest and pay dividends.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $20 million for Q3.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow reported at or above $20 million for Q3.
Why it matters: Material costs affect profitability. If they rise too much, it could hurt Hawkins' margins.
Worry ifGross profit margin is still over 23%. This is good, even with rising material costs.
Less concerning ifGross profit margin falls below 20% due to rising material costs.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$118 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $413 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,572 loss on $10,000 · 35.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More acquisitions would show the company's focus on growing in Water Treatment.
Supportive ifA new purchase in the Water Treatment segment has been announced.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions in the Water Treatment segment are expected next quarter.
Why it matters: Higher SG&A costs could mean rising operational costs. This may hurt profits.
Worry ifSG&A expenses reported above 15% of total sales.
Less concerning ifSG&A expenses reported at or below 15% of total sales.
Why it matters: Acquisitions are crucial for growth. Their success can drive revenue higher.
Supportive ifAcquired companies contribute more than $15 million to revenue in Q1 2027.
Worry ifAcquired companies contribute less than $5 million to revenue in Q1 2027.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show growth in revenue. They will also show growth in operating income for different segments.
Watch forEarnings results show revenue and operating income growth in all segments.
Also watch forEarnings results show drops in revenue or operating income.
Why it matters: EPS growth shows how well a company is doing. It affects how investors feel.
Supportive ifFiscal 2027 EPS grows year over year by more than 5%.
Worry ifFiscal 2027 EPS growth is flat or negative compared to fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Stable or improved revenue growth signals Hawkins is overcoming sector challenges. This is key for future performance.
Supportive ifQ4 revenue growth turns positive year over year or stabilizes above -2%.
Worry ifQ4 revenue growth declines further year over year.
Why it matters: EPS growth shows how well a company is doing. It shows good management and health.
Supportive ifQ1 2027 EPS growth exceeds 5% compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifQ1 2027 EPS growth is flat or declines compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Hawkins aims to grow revenue in all segments. Success indicates strong execution of their growth strategy.
Supportive ifQ1 2027 revenue growth across all segments exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth in any segment is flat or declines year over year.
Why it matters: A lower leverage ratio means better financial health. It shows Hawkins is handling debt well.
Supportive ifLeverage ratio drops to 1x adjusted EBITDA or lower by end of FY 2027.
Worry ifThe leverage ratio stays above 1.5x adjusted EBITDA by the end of FY 2027.
Why it matters: Stable revenue growth is key for Hawkins, Inc. to show consistent performance. Investors will look for signs that growth is not just a one-time event.
Supportive ifQ1 2027 revenue growth shows an increase or remains stable compared to Q4 2026's $223.02M.
Worry ifQ1 2027 revenue declines compared to Q4 2026's $223.02M.
Why it matters: Acquisitions have driven growth; new deals could signal ongoing expansion.
Supportive ifNew purchases in the Water Treatment area are being announced.
Worry ifNo new purchases are announced or planned for Water Treatment.
Why it matters: If revenue growth slows below 5%, it may signal a loss of momentum. This could affect investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth reported above 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in gross profit margin could indicate rising costs are outpacing revenue growth. This may hurt overall profitability.
Worry ifGross profit margin reported below 23% in Q3.
Less concerning ifGross profit margin remains at or above 23% in Q3.
Why it matters: If SG&A costs go up a lot, it may show problems or higher costs. This could hurt profits.
Worry ifSG&A expenses reported to increase over 15% year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifSG&A expenses reported to increase less than 15% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Updates on Aqua-Chem will show if Hawkins can grow through buying companies. This is important for future growth.
Supportive ifManagement says Aqua-Chem is working well. It is helping to increase revenue.
Worry ifManagement talks about problems with Aqua-Chem. There are delays in the integration.