Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Hyliion Holdings Corp. (HYLN)
AMEXConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.63-12.33%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
AMEXConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HYLN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain about $100M cash and investments by end 2026 | A supporting condition in Hyliion Holdings Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$100 million. | Intact | cash balance falls well below $100 million at end FY26 | Cash and cash equivalents: $13.166M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$100 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Date unavailable13,166,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth business with elevated risk, not an established compounder: it remains loss-making and recent financial performance is weak. Management is making progress on commercialization and military contracts, but the thesis is in a watch state and company momentum has weakened.
The valuation carries a 134.3% premium versus peers, with optionality driving the gap; optionality means investors are assigning value to possible future growth. Model confidence is low, so the evidence does not establish exactly how much future progress is already assumed.
Near term, revenue growth and contract execution have evidence behind them: quarterly revenue rose from $1.5 million to $4.9 million year over year, full-year revenue guidance was raised, and HYLN secured a Navy contract. Cash management is mixed, despite lower net cash use guidance and $132.4 million in cash and investments at 2026-Q2; recent performance remains below its industry cohort, and momentum has weakened.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the key test is whether KARNO revenue and military funding continue to grow while the company controls cash use. A reversal of recently raised guidance would damage credibility, while results from sector bellwethers could either support or weaken the sector backdrop for HYLN.
HYLN’s long-term thesis has real execution progress, but it remains loss-making, elevated-risk, and valued at a large premium to peers despite weak recent performance. The 1 to 3 year view hinges on sustained commercialization, contract delivery, and cash discipline. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Limit total cash use to about $50M in 2026 |
| A supporting condition in Hyliion Holdings Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is <= $50 million. |
| Intact |
| cash use exceeds $50 million in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Generate at least $50M free cash flow in 2026 | It plans $50M free cash flow in 2026. | Broken | free cash flow falls below $50 million in FY26 | Free cash flow: $-7.302M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $50 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 11, 2026-7,302,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve at least $10M revenue in 2026 | A primary condition in Hyliion Holdings Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $10 million. | Intact | revenue falls below $10 million in FY26 | Revenue: $4.944M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $10 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 11, 20264,944,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.37 → $-0.30 · observed estimates
$0.03B → $0.03B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.37 | $29,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.37 | $29,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.37 | $29,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.37 | $29,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.30 | $38,400,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.30 | $38,400,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.30 | $38,400,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.30 | $38,400,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.37 | $29,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.37 | $29,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.37 | $29,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.30 | $38,400,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.37 | $29,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.30 | $38,400,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.37 | $29,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.30 | $38,400,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.37 | $29,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.30 | $38,400,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.30 | $38,400,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.37 | $29,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.37 | $29,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.37 | $29,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.37 | $29,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.37 | $29,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.37 | $29,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.37 | $29,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.31 | $32,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.31 | $32,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.31 | $32,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.31 | $32,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.31 | $32,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.31 | $32,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.31 | $32,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.31 | $32,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.31 | $32,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.31 | $32,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.31 | $32,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.31 | $32,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.31 | $32,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.31 | $32,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.31 | $32,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.31 | $32,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.31 | $32,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.31 | $32,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.31 | $32,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.31 | $32,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.31 | $32,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.31 | $32,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.31 | $32,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.31 | $32,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.31 | $32,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.31 | $32,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.31 | $32,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.31 | $32,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.31 | $32,799,999 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.31 | $32,799,999 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.31 | $32,799,999 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.29 | $32,799,999 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.29 | $32,799,999 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.29 | $32,799,999 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.29 | $32,799,999 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.29 | $32,799,999 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.29 | $32,799,999 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.29 | $32,799,999 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.29 | $32,799,999 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.29 | $32,799,999 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.29 | $32,799,999 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.30 | $31,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.30 | $31,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.30 | $31,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.30 | $31,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.30 | $31,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.30 | $31,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.30 | $31,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.30 | $31,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.30 | $31,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.30 | $31,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.30 | $31,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.30 | $31,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.30 | $31,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.30 | $31,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.30 | $31,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.30 | $31,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.30 | $31,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.30 | $31,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.30 | $31,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.30 | $31,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.30 | $31,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.30 | $31,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.30 | $31,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.30 | $31,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.30 | $31,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.30 | $31,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.30 | $31,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.30 | $31,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.30 | $31,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.30 | $31,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.30 | $31,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.30 | $31,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.30 | $31,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.30 | $31,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.30 | $31,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.30 | $31,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.