Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
MarineMax, Inc. (HZO)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
$52.73+0.04%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.57 → 2.57 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HZO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross profit margin near 34.4% in Q2 2026 | Gross margin rose to 34.4% in Q2 2026. | Intact | gross margin falls below 30% next year | Gross margin: 35.68% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=34.4%. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Jul 23, 202635.676915 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Since 2019, we have expanded our higher-margin, non-boat revenue streams, contributing to a significant improvement in gross margin from 26.1% in fiscal 2019 to 34.9% in fiscal 2026.” “The 270 basis point expansion in gross margin was primarily driven by improved boat profitability and a greater contribution from higher-margin businesses across the portfolio.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical business with an execution-led improvement story, rather than a steady compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, but earnings quality remains fragile and management execution is mixed.
The valuation signal is stretched, even though HZO is described as cheap versus peers. The evidence points to an expectations gap, but does not show exactly what earnings assumptions the market has priced in.
Near term, margin progress is supported by growth in higher-margin businesses, with gross margin rising from 31.8% in 2026-Q1 to 35.7% in 2026-Q3. Inventory and floor plan borrowings have fallen, but that priority is still behind, and erratic earnings with recent misses leave guidance cuts as a key risk. Management reaffirmed fiscal 2026 guidance, and adjusted EBITDA progress supports that outlook so far.
The multi-year view depends on continued margin gains and further reductions in inventory and financing needs. Near term, a guidance cut would weaken the thesis, while results and guidance from major consumer-discretionary companies could affect the sector backdrop. A litigation filing is also a recent negative event, though the evidence gives no detail on its likely impact.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, HZO’s thesis rests on turning recent operating improvement into more reliable earnings and stronger liquidity. The setup remains mixed, with progress on margins offset by fragile earnings quality and execution risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Inventory <= $845.4M and floor plan borrowings <= $689.9M in Q2 2026 | Inventory and floor plan debt fell, improving liquidity. | Under Pressure | inventory or floor plan borrowings rise above 2025 levels next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Inventories declined $54.6 million, or 6.3%, to $812.8 million in fiscal 2026 from $867.3 million at the end of fiscal 2025, which followed a $39.3 million decline in inventory from the end of fiscal 2024.” ““During the quarter, we also achieved substantial reductions in inventory and floor plan financing, reflecting disciplined operational execution and improved alignment between supply and demand.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Revenue growth near 5.5% per year | A primary condition in MarineMax, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=5% YoY. | Broken | revenue growth falls below 3% next year | Revenue growth: -6.98% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=5% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Jul 23, 2026-6.984763 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Implement $100 million stock repurchase plan through March 2028 | The company started a $100 million stock buyback plan. | Intact | no buybacks executed by end 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.57 → $2.57 · observed estimates
$2.40B → $2.40B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $2.57 | $2,399,299,200 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.57 | $2,399,299,200 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.57 | $2,399,299,200 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.57 | $2,399,299,200 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.57 | $2,399,299,200 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.57 | $2,399,299,200 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.57 | $2,399,299,200 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.57 | $2,399,299,200 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.57 | $2,399,299,200 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.57 | $2,399,299,200 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.57 | $2,399,299,200 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.57 | $2,399,299,200 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.57 | $2,399,299,200 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.57 | $2,399,299,200 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.57 | $2,399,299,200 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.57 | $2,399,299,200 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.57 | $2,399,299,200 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.57 | $2,399,299,200 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.57 | $2,399,299,200 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.57 | $2,399,299,200 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.57 | $2,399,299,200 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.57 | $2,399,299,200 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.57 | $2,399,299,200 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.57 | $2,399,299,200 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.57 | $2,399,299,200 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.57 | $2,399,299,200 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.57 | $2,399,299,200 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.57 | $2,399,299,200 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.57 | $2,399,299,200 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.57 | $2,399,299,200 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.57 | $2,399,299,200 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.57 | $2,399,299,200 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.57 | $2,399,299,200 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.57 | $2,399,299,200 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.57 | $2,399,299,200 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-05 | $2.57 | $2,399,299,200 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.