MarineMax, Inc. (HZO)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
$52.73+0.04%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HZO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 5.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 14 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HZO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-04
and shall not be deemed to be "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the date of this Current Report, regardless of any general incorporation language in the filing.
Why it matters: Boat sales were weak, but higher-margin businesses lifted gross margin. Same-store sales will show if retail demand is easing.
Watch forA reported quarter shows same-store sales flat or higher year over year, versus the 7% Q3 decline.
Also watch forSame-store sales fall more than 7% year over year in the next reported quarter.
Why it matters: Lower inventory can cut borrowing needs. Q3 inventory was down year over year, but MarineMax still held $788.6 million.
Watch forThe next report shows inventory below $788.6 million. Floor plan borrowings are lower than in the prior-year quarter.
Also watch forInventory rises above $788.6 million and floor plan borrowings rise year over year.
Why it matters: The deal is set to close by year-end, pending regulatory approval and other conditions. A delay or termination puts the cash offer at risk.
Watch forMarineMax and Safe Harbor announce all needed approvals. They close the $53-per-share cash deal by December 31, 2026.
Also watch forA needed approval is denied, the deal ends, or closing moves past December 31, 2026.
Why it matters: Q3 margin rose with better boat margins and more income from services and marinas. A sharp drop would weaken that progress.
Watch forA later quarter reports gross margin of 35.7% or more, without a one-time tariff refund.
Also watch forGross margin falls below 34.4%, the Q2 level, in a later quarter.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$13 on $10,000 · ±0.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $382 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,029 loss on $10,000 · 20.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.