MarineMax, Inc. (HZO)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$52.160.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HZO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 12.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 44 industry peers
HZO — restructuring
Dated 2026-08-10
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. The Merger Agreement On August 9, 2026, MarineMax, Inc., a Florida corporation (the “Company”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agreement”), by and among the Company, SHM Holdco, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“Parent”), and Intrepid Holdco, Inc., a Florida corporation and an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of Parent (“Merger Sub”). Parent and Merger Sub are affiliates of Safe Harbor Marinas, LLC (“Safe Harbor…
Why it matters: Higher gross margins show the business strategy is working well.
Supportive ifGross margin exceeds 36% in the fiscal 2026 third quarter results.
Worry ifGross margin falls below 34% in the fiscal 2026 third quarter results.
Why it matters: Lawsuits could delay or stop the acquisition. This would affect MarineMax's change to a private company.
Worry ifNo new lawsuits are filed against the acquisition.
Less concerning ifNew lawsuits challenge the acquisition deal.
Why it matters: A bigger drop would show lower demand in the marine retail market. This could hurt future profits.
Worry ifSame-store sales decline greater than 7% in Q3 fiscal 2026.
Less concerning ifSame-store sales decline less than 7% or turn positive.
Why it matters: Lower inventory means better cash flow and efficiency. This is key for financial health.
Supportive ifInventories decrease by more than $100 million from the previous quarter.
Worry ifInventories increase or decrease by less than $100 million from the previous quarter.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means the company is working well and is financially strong.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $55 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifCash flow from operations drops below $40 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal broader market issues. It affects MarineMax's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below its median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: Growth in same-store sales shows consumers are buying more in the marine sector.
Supportive ifSame-store sales increase compared to last year in the fiscal 2026 third quarter.
Worry ifSame-store sales decrease compared to last year in the fiscal 2026 third quarter.
Why it matters: A gross profit margin over 34% shows good cost control and strong high-margin sales.
Supportive ifGross profit margin in Q2 exceeds 34%, up from 31.8% in Q1.
Worry ifGross profit margin falls below 31.8% in Q2.
Why it matters: Reducing inventory will help cash flow and improve profit margins.
Supportive ifInventory levels decrease by at least 10% compared to Q3's $788.6 million.
Worry ifInventory levels increase or decline less than 10% compared to Q3.
Why it matters: Hitting the EBITDA goal shows the company can handle tough market times.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for fiscal 2026 reaches at least $110 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is less than $110 million.
Why it matters: Meeting this target would confirm management's plans. It would show strong performance.
Supportive ifQ4 adjusted EBITDA is $125 million or more.
Worry ifQ4 adjusted EBITDA is less than $110 million.
Why it matters: The legal results could affect financial health and focus.
Worry ifA good ruling that does not cost MarineMax much.
Less concerning ifA bad ruling that leads to big financial penalties or limits on operations.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$124 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $436 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,385 loss on $10,000 · 23.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.