Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Interactive Brokers (IBKR)
NASDAQFinancialsInvestment - Banking & Investment ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$72.73-6.61%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInvestment - Banking & Investment ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.23 → 3.30 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for IBKR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Customer accounts increase by 31% to 4.75 million | Interactive Brokers grows customer accounts 31% to 4.75 million. | Intact | customer accounts fail to grow by 31% year-over-year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
IBKR is a profitable financial-services growth business, with a long-term thesis supported by recent revenue growth and stable management. The thesis is intact, though confidence is medium and the sector backdrop is neutral.
Valuation is expensive versus peers, with a 1.62 premium, while the expectations gap is modest at 0.05. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, and fragility is low; valuation has recently eased, but model confidence is low.
Over the multi-year view, revenue growth has been clear: net revenue rose from $1.427 billion in 2025-Q1 to $1.914 billion in 2026-Q3, though the latest quarter was only modestly above the prior one. Low-cost automated service delivery remains a stated priority, but the evidence directly proving progress is limited. Near term, miss risk is rated low, but past misses and possible guidance cuts remain risks.
The thesis depends on revenue growth continuing and management maintaining execution without cutting guidance on the next call. Near term, Fed rate cuts could weigh on financial firms, while continued strong results and guidance from BNY, BK, and HLI could support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, IBKR’s strong recent performance supports an intact long-term thesis, but its expensive peer valuation makes execution and the rate backdrop important swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Revenue is guided near $1.68 billion next quarter. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $0.59 next quarter |
Diluted EPS: $0.69 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$0.60 per share. Target period ends 2026-06-30; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Nov 5, 20260.69 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net revenue near $1.68 billion next quarter | Revenue is guided near $1.68 billion next quarter. | Broken | net revenue falls below $1.67 billion next quarter | Revenue: $690M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.68 billion. Target period ends 2026-06-30; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Nov 5, 2026690,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.14 → $3.30 · observed estimates
$8.60B → $8.89B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.14 | $8,595,497,055 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.17 | $8,709,030,670 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.16 | $8,677,933,425 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.16 | $8,677,933,425 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.19 | $8,677,933,425 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.19 | $8,709,030,670 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.19 | $8,677,933,425 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.19 | $8,677,933,425 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.19 | $8,677,933,425 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.19 | $8,677,933,425 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.19 | $8,677,933,425 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.19 | $8,703,026,290 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.19 | $8,677,933,425 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.19 | $8,679,987,000 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.19 | $8,677,933,425 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.19 | $8,677,933,425 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.18 | $8,672,296,510 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.18 | $8,672,296,510 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.18 | $8,672,296,510 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.19 | $8,677,933,425 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.19 | $8,677,933,425 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.19 | $8,677,933,425 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.19 | $8,677,933,425 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.19 | $8,677,933,425 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.19 | $8,677,933,425 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.19 | $8,677,933,425 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.18 | $8,654,052,842 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.18 | $8,654,052,842 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.18 | $8,654,052,842 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.18 | $8,654,052,842 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.18 | $8,654,052,842 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.18 | $8,654,052,842 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.18 | $8,654,052,842 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.18 | $8,654,052,842 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.18 | $8,654,052,842 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.18 | $8,651,647,557 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.18 | $8,651,647,557 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.18 | $8,651,647,557 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.18 | $8,651,647,557 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.18 | $8,651,647,557 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.17 | $8,635,984,366 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.17 | $8,647,820,487 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.17 | $8,647,820,487 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.17 | $8,647,820,487 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.17 | $8,647,820,487 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.17 | $8,647,820,487 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.17 | $8,647,820,487 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.17 | $8,647,820,487 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.17 | $8,647,820,487 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.17 | $8,647,820,487 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.17 | $8,647,820,487 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.17 | $8,647,820,487 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.17 | $8,647,820,487 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.17 | $8,647,820,487 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.17 | $8,647,820,487 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.17 | $8,647,820,487 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.17 | $8,647,820,487 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.17 | $8,647,820,487 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.17 | $8,647,820,487 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.18 | $8,677,484,913 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.18 | $8,677,484,913 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.18 | $8,677,484,913 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.18 | $8,677,484,913 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.18 | $8,677,484,913 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.18 | $8,677,484,913 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.18 | $8,677,484,913 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.18 | $8,677,484,913 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.18 | $8,677,484,913 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.18 | $8,677,484,913 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.19 | $8,695,498,170 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.21 | $8,742,064,837 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.21 | $8,742,064,837 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.22 | $8,742,064,837 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.23 | $8,758,481,504 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.25 | $8,809,272,863 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.26 | $8,800,506,377 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.26 | $8,800,506,377 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.26 | $8,800,506,377 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.26 | $8,800,506,377 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.26 | $8,800,506,377 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.27 | $8,807,262,609 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.27 | $8,807,262,609 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.27 | $8,806,765,144 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.31 | $8,906,807,587 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.31 | $8,906,807,587 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.31 | $8,906,807,587 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.32 | $8,923,776,180 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.31 | $8,917,368,603 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.31 | $8,917,368,603 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.31 | $8,917,368,603 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.31 | $8,917,368,603 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.31 | $8,917,368,603 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.31 | $8,917,368,603 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.31 | $8,917,368,603 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.31 | $8,917,368,603 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.31 | $8,914,701,011 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.31 | $8,914,701,011 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.31 | $8,914,701,011 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.31 | $8,914,701,011 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.31 | $8,925,601,088 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.31 | $8,925,601,088 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.31 | $8,912,635,396 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.30 | $8,893,410,558 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-11-05 | $3.30 | $8,893,410,558 | 10 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 4 recorded
2 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.