Interactive Brokers (IBKR)
NASDAQFinancialsInvestment - Banking & Investment ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$92.62-0.36%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInvestment - Banking & Investment ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · IBKR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 10.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 17.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers
IBKR — debt issuance
Dated 2026-07-31
Other Events. On July 31, 2026, Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (the “Company”) filed a Prospectus Supplement under Rule 424(b)(5) to take down 2,499,567 shares of the Company’s common stock off its shelf Registration Statement on Form S-3 (Registration Statement No. 333-297857) (the “Registration Statement”) filed with the SEC on July 31, 2026. The legal opinion letter of Dechert LLP, counsel to the Company, regarding the validity of the shares is filed as Exhibit 5.2 to this Current Report…
Why it matters: A drop in trading volumes may show less demand. This could hurt revenue and profits.
Worry ifDaily average revenue trades (DARTs) are below 4 million for two months in a row.
Less concerning ifDARTs remain above 4 million for the same period.
Why it matters: DARTs growth shows how much people are trading and engaging.
Supportive ifDARTs reported at or above 4.37 million, showing 24% growth.
Worry ifDARTs are below 4.37 million. This shows less trading activity.
Why it matters: A drop in trading volume may show less market interest. This could hurt revenue.
Worry ifCustomer trading volume grew less than 10% from last year.
Less concerning ifCustomer trading volume growth remains above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth shows possible problems. It may impact Interactive Brokers' performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$179 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $379 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,869 loss on $10,000 · 18.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: High commission revenue growth shows more trading and active customers.
Supportive ifCommission revenue growth exceeds 30% year over year.
Worry ifCommission revenue growth is below 30% year over year.
Why it matters: This growth shows strong customer acquisition. It is key to the company's long-term success.
Supportive ifCustomer accounts reported at or above 4.75 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCustomer accounts were below 4.75 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue target shows strong growth and supports management's goals. It confirms the company's ability to expand and attract customers.
Supportive ifQ3 net revenue reported at or above $1.68 billion.
Worry ifQ3 net revenue reported below $1.68 billion.
Why it matters: Hitting this EPS target shows better profits. It helps build investor trust. It shows good cost control and rising sales.
Supportive ifQ3 GAAP diluted EPS reported at or above $0.59.
Worry ifQ3 GAAP diluted EPS reported below $0.59.
Why it matters: Sustaining this growth rate shows strong demand for services and market share gains. It indicates the company's competitive position in the market.
Supportive ifCustomer accounts reported to grow at or above 31% year over year.
Worry ifCustomer accounts growth reported below 31% year over year.
Why it matters: More margin loans mean more trading and customer trust. This growth helps earn more from interest.
Supportive ifIn Q3, customer margin loans were over $108.5 billion.
Worry ifIn Q3, customer margin loans were under $108.5 billion.