Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Ibotta, Inc. (IBTA)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$63.03+4.44%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for IBTA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA margin improves despite revenue pressure | A primary condition in Ibotta, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is margin improves from current levels over next 4 quarters. | Under Pressure | margin fails to improve or declines over next 4 quarters | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth and execution story, not a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: management priorities are progressing, but recent performance and repeated earnings misses have weakened confidence.
IBTA is valued at a substantial premium to peers, and the evidence labels that premium unjustified. The expectations gap is 0.36, with valuation marked as the main source of fragility rather than a broader combination of expensive valuation, weak results, and turbulence.
Near-term results remain uncertain: the estimated chance of a next-quarter miss is elevated, and another guidance cut would be a meaningful setback. At the same time, revenue returned to year-over-year growth in the second quarter, adjusted EBITDA margin improved, and third-party publisher redemptions grew, supporting management’s stated priorities.
The multi-year view hinges on whether revenue growth and margin progress continue and whether the partner network keeps expanding. Near term, another guidance cut or earnings miss would weaken the case; easier rates and steadier results across major technology companies could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, IBTA’s thesis rests on sustained execution, but weak recent performance, a premium valuation, and elevated miss risk leave the setup fragile. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Revenue stabilizes near $82M and grows modestly |
| A primary condition in Ibotta, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $82 million next 4 quarters. |
| Intact |
| revenue falls below $82 million next 4 quarters |
Revenue: $97.825M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $82 million next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 3, 202697,825,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Share repurchase program expands by $100 million | It also expanded its share buyback program by $100 million. | Intact | no expansion of buyback program by mid-2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.72 → $-0.09 · observed estimates
$0.38B → $0.39B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.72 | $376,661,680 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.46 | $376,663,934 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.72 | $376,661,680 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.46 | $376,663,934 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.72 | $376,661,680 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.72 | $376,661,680 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.46 | $376,663,934 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.72 | $376,661,680 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.46 | $376,663,934 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.72 | $376,661,680 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.72 | $376,661,680 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.72 | $376,661,680 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.72 | $376,661,680 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.75 | $381,259,640 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.31 | $383,613,640 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.31 | $383,613,640 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.88 | $383,611,640 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.31 | $383,613,640 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.88 | $383,611,640 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.31 | $383,613,640 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.31 | $383,613,640 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.31 | $383,613,640 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.31 | $383,613,640 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.31 | $383,613,640 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.31 | $383,613,640 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.31 | $383,613,640 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.28 | $383,613,640 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.28 | $383,613,640 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.28 | $385,825,595 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.28 | $385,825,595 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.28 | $385,825,595 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.28 | $385,825,595 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.28 | $385,825,595 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.28 | $385,825,595 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.28 | $385,825,595 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.28 | $385,825,595 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.28 | $385,825,595 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.28 | $385,825,595 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.28 | $385,825,595 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.28 | $385,825,595 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.28 | $385,825,595 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.28 | $385,825,595 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.28 | $385,825,595 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.28 | $385,825,595 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.28 | $385,825,595 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.28 | $385,825,595 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.28 | $385,825,595 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.28 | $385,825,595 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.28 | $385,825,595 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.28 | $385,825,595 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.28 | $385,825,595 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.28 | $385,825,595 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.28 | $385,825,595 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.28 | $385,825,595 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.28 | $385,825,595 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.28 | $385,825,595 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.28 | $385,825,595 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.28 | $385,825,595 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.28 | $385,825,595 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.28 | $385,825,595 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.28 | $385,825,595 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.28 | $385,825,595 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.28 | $384,722,751 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.28 | $384,722,751 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.28 | $384,722,751 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.28 | $384,722,751 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.28 | $384,722,751 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.28 | $384,722,751 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.28 | $384,722,751 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.28 | $384,722,751 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.28 | $384,722,751 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.28 | $384,722,751 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.28 | $384,722,751 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.28 | $384,722,751 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.28 | $384,722,751 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.28 | $384,722,751 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.28 | $384,722,751 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.28 | $384,722,751 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.28 | $384,722,751 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.28 | $384,722,751 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.28 | $384,722,751 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.28 | $384,722,751 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.28 | $384,722,751 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.28 | $384,722,751 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.28 | $384,722,751 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.28 | $384,722,751 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.28 | $384,722,751 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.28 | $384,722,751 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.28 | $384,722,751 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.28 | $384,722,751 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.28 | $384,722,751 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.28 | $384,722,751 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.28 | $384,722,751 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.28 | $384,722,751 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.28 | $384,722,751 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.28 | $384,722,751 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.28 | $384,722,751 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.28 | $384,722,751 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.28 | $384,722,751 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.28 | $384,722,751 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.28 | $384,722,751 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.11 | $389,597,151 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.09 | $392,107,838 | 3 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
3 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.