Ibotta, Inc. (IBTA)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$38.39+2.81%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · IBTA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 25.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 16.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
IBTA — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-03
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the information contained in Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: Share buybacks can show management believes in the company's value.
Supportive ifNew share buybacks announced or the current program is finished.
Worry ifNo new share buyback announcements may show worries about cash flow.
Why it matters: More redeemers lead to better engagement. This helps Ibotta's platform grow.
Supportive ifTotal redeemers exceed 20.9 million in Q3.
Worry ifTotal redeemers fall below 20.9 million in Q3.
Why it matters: A larger net loss shows ongoing money problems and may upset investors.
Worry ifQ2 net loss reported greater than $10 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 net loss was less than $10 million. This shows better financial health.
Why it matters: A margin at or above this level shows good cost control and strength.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin at or above 14.8% is a positive sign.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin below 14.8% may mean there are cost problems.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$239 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $656 loss on $10,000 · 6.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,513 loss on $10,000 · 45.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: New partnerships like Uber and Giant Eagle could drive user growth and redemption rates.
Supportive ifUser growth was above 20% year-over-year thanks to new partnerships.
Worry ifUser growth was below 15% year-over-year. This shows partnerships are not driving growth.
Why it matters: Revenue has been declining. Stabilization or growth would show management's efforts are working.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue was over $82.48M. This shows stability or growth.
Worry ifQ2 revenue continues to decline below $82.48M.
Why it matters: If revenue guidance is below $86 million, it signals ongoing revenue challenges. This would be a setback for management's goal of stabilizing revenue growth.
Worry ifManagement says Q3 revenue will be less than $86 million.
Less concerning ifManagement says Q3 revenue will be more than $86 million.
Why it matters: A revenue drop in Q2 would show ongoing struggles despite management's focus on growth.
Worry ifQ2 revenue was below $82 million. This shows a decline from last year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue is over $86 million. This suggests a possible recovery.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding guidance would confirm the company's return to revenue growth. It shows strong demand and effective execution.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue guidance of $90 million or more is met or exceeded.
Worry ifQ3 revenue falls below the lower end of guidance at $86 million.
Why it matters: If the margin drops, it shows problems with costs and profits. This could mean issues with operations.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin stays at or above 14.8% in Q3.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 14.8% in Q3.
Why it matters: Slower growth may show less demand or more competition. This would challenge the growth story.
Worry ifRedemption revenue growth remains at or above 10% YoY.
Less concerning ifRedemption revenue growth falls below 10% YoY.
Why it matters: An expansion shows that management believes in the company's finances and future. This could boost value for shareholders.
Supportive ifWatch for news on raising the share buyback limit.
Worry ifNo news about expanding the share repurchase program.