Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-26 · fmp
Ichor Holdings, Ltd. (ICHR)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$28.03-16.85%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.27 → 3.41 EPS · FY ending Dec 26, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ICHR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash flow from operations improves to positive | A supporting condition in Ichor Holdings, Ltd.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $0. | Broken | Cash flow remains negative over next 4 quarters | Cash from operations: $-15.875M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 4, 2026-15,875,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-26 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, execution-dependent growth business, not yet a durable compounder: the evidence shows it remains loss-making overall despite recent improvements in operating income. The long-term thesis is on watch because performance has trailed its industry cohort, even as management has delivered on several stated priorities.
ICHR is described as cheap versus peers, but the valuation model has low confidence and the expectations gap is negative, so the discount does not by itself signal a strong setup. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility; the evidence does not show that the market has become unusually vulnerable to disappointment.
Near term, revenue growth and improving gross margin are supported by recent results, and management expects further sequential revenue growth in Q3 2026. Cash increased after an equity offering, while operating income improved, but the company remains loss-making and momentum fell; the next guidance update and recent weakness among peers remain risks.
The multi-year thesis depends on revenue growth continuing and margin gains translating into stronger operating results. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while lower interest rates or stabilization among major technology companies could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ICHR has evidence of improving execution, but the loss-making profile, weaker relative performance, and high risk leave the thesis dependent on sustained growth and margin progress. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Operating income improved from a loss of $13.8 million to a profit of $2.1 million in the same period. |
| Broken |
| Operating income falls below zero next quarter |
Operating income: $22.81M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.1 million. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 202622,810,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth to about $300 million next quarter | The company aims to grow revenue further to about $300 million next quarter and improve profits. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below $256 million next quarter | Revenue: $328.699M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$300 million. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 2026328,699,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““We are pleased to report another quarter of strong growth and expanding profitability, as the strategic priorities we laid out a year ago continue to translate into results,” commented Phil Barros, Ichor’s CEO.” “"We are pleased to report strong financial results for the second quarter, as we continue to execute strategic and operational priorities that are driving improved earnings leverage within a strengthening demand environment,” commented Phil Barros, Ichor’s CEO.” Revenue was $328.699 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.70 → $3.41 · observed estimates
$1.44B → $1.64B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.70 | $1,441,013,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.70 | $1,441,013,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.69 | $1,441,013,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.69 | $1,441,013,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.69 | $1,441,013,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.69 | $1,441,013,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.69 | $1,441,013,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.69 | $1,441,013,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.69 | $1,441,013,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.69 | $1,441,013,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.69 | $1,441,013,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.69 | $1,441,013,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.69 | $1,441,013,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.69 | $1,441,013,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.27 | $1,629,614,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.27 | $1,629,564,125 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.29 | $1,634,368,111 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.29 | $1,634,368,111 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.29 | $1,634,368,111 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.29 | $1,634,368,111 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.29 | $1,634,368,111 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.29 | $1,634,368,111 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.29 | $1,634,368,111 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.29 | $1,634,368,111 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.29 | $1,634,368,111 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.29 | $1,634,368,111 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.29 | $1,634,368,111 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.29 | $1,658,539,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.29 | $1,658,539,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.29 | $1,658,539,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.29 | $1,658,539,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.29 | $1,658,539,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.29 | $1,658,539,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.29 | $1,658,539,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.29 | $1,658,539,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.29 | $1,658,539,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.29 | $1,658,539,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.29 | $1,658,539,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.29 | $1,658,539,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.29 | $1,658,539,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.35 | $1,652,026,625 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.41 | $1,636,157,250 | 6 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.