Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
iHeartMedia, Inc. (IHRT)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.87-8.78%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.05 → 0.01 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for IHRT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve $800 million Adjusted EBITDA for FY 2026 | Management targets $800 million adjusted EBITDA in 2026. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $800 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““In the second quarter, the Digital Audio Group’s revenue was $364 million, up 12.4% year over year and above our guidance, and our Q2 Adjusted EBITDA margins were 33.8%” said Rich Bressler, President and COO of iHeartMedia, Inc. “In this quarter we generated $46 million of Free Cash Flow, and this strong performance gives us additional confidence in the second half of the year.” “And today we are reaffirming our Full Year Adjusted EBITDA guide of $800 million and our Free Cash Flow guide of $200 million.”” Revenue was $977.239 million in 2026-Q2. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a financially stressed, execution-dependent business rather than a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, but its signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed, with elevated risk and medium confidence.
The valuation evidence points to IHRT as cheap versus peers, while the model also shows a small premium to peers, low confidence, and an expectations gap of -0.3. The priced-in tag is justified, and no fragility gates fired, but that does not remove the risk tied to ongoing losses and earnings misses.
Near term, management is progressing toward its 2026 goals: revenue and Adjusted EBITDA improved from Q1 to Q2, and the $800 million Adjusted EBITDA goal remains on track. Free cash flow improved from negative in Q1 to positive in Q2, but its progress toward the approximately $200 million annual goal is mixed. Recent earnings misses, a high stated risk of another miss, and a sector headwind temper the operating progress.
The multi-year view depends on continued progress toward management’s 2026 targets and whether free cash flow can support the annual goal. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative; rate cuts or continued strong results and guidance from sector bellwethers would be favorable conditions.
Over the next one to three years, IHRT’s thesis rests on execution against its 2026 goals, while losses, repeated earnings misses, and sector pressure remain important risks. The evidence supports a mixed, intact thesis rather than a clear fundamental trend. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Generate $200 million Free Cash Flow in FY 2026 | They also plan to generate $200 million free cash flow. | Intact | Free cash flow falls below $200 million in FY26 | Free cash flow: $45.954M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=200 USD_MILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 202645,954,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““In the second quarter, the Digital Audio Group’s revenue was $364 million, up 12.4% year over year and above our guidance, and our Q2 Adjusted EBITDA margins were 33.8%” said Rich Bressler, President and COO of iHeartMedia, Inc. “In this quarter we generated $46 million of Free Cash Flow, and this strong performance gives us additional confidence in the second half of the year.” “And today we are reaffirming our Full Year Adjusted EBITDA guide of $800 million and our Free Cash Flow guide of $200 million.”” Revenue was $977.239 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stabilize earnings and improve execution | A supporting condition in iHeartMedia, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS improves to positive by FY27. | Broken | EPS remains negative or declines further by FY27 | Diluted EPS: $-0.52 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS improves to positive by FY27. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 2026-0.52 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase revenue by low-single digits | iHeartMedia aims to grow revenue by low-single digits. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 3.6% next quarter | Revenue growth: 4.67% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=3.6% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 10, 20264.66833 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.04 → $0.01 · observed estimates
$4.15B → $4.14B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.04 | $4,154,971,816 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.04 | $4,154,971,816 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.04 | $4,154,971,816 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.04 | $4,155,071,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.04 | $4,154,971,816 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.04 | $4,154,971,816 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.04 | $4,155,071,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.04 | $4,155,071,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.04 | $4,154,971,816 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.04 | $4,154,971,816 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.04 | $4,155,071,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.04 | $4,155,071,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.04 | $4,155,071,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.04 | $4,155,071,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.04 | $4,154,971,816 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.04 | $4,154,971,816 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.04 | $4,155,071,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.04 | $4,154,971,816 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.03 | $4,152,767,080 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.03 | $4,152,767,080 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.04 | $4,154,971,816 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.04 | $4,154,971,816 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.04 | $4,154,971,816 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.04 | $4,154,971,816 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.04 | $4,154,971,816 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.04 | $4,154,971,816 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.05 | $4,145,017,079 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.01 | $4,136,817,080 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.01 | $4,136,817,080 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.01 | $4,136,817,080 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.01 | $4,136,817,080 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.01 | $4,136,817,080 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.01 | $4,136,817,080 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.01 | $4,136,817,080 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.01 | $4,136,817,080 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.01 | $4,136,817,080 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.01 | $4,136,817,080 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.01 | $4,136,817,080 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.01 | $4,136,817,080 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.01 | $4,136,817,080 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.01 | $4,136,817,080 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.01 | $4,136,817,080 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.01 | $4,136,817,080 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.01 | $4,136,817,080 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.01 | $4,136,817,080 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.01 | $4,136,817,080 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.01 | $4,136,817,080 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.