Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
IMMUNOCORE HOLDINGS PLC (IMCR)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$29.23-2.66%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for IMCR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash flow from operations improves toward break-even | Cash flow from operations is also improving, down from -$33M to -$14M. | Recovered | Cash flow from operations falls below -$30M after 2026-Q1 | Cash from operations: $-5.475M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= -$13.78M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 2026-5,475,088 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a clinical-stage biotech with an established product and a developing pipeline, rather than a consistently profitable business. The long-term thesis is intact, with management execution stable and recent financial performance strong, but earnings remain uneven.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure suggests IMCR is cheap versus peers, while another shows a 0.4 premium to peers. The model has low confidence, and the priced-in assessment is tagged as justified, with no identified fragility flags.
Near term, KIMMTRAK revenue growth and narrowing losses support continued progress toward profitability, although the company remains loss-making overall. Management has delivered on KIMMTRAK expansion and TEBE-AM enrollment, while other trials continue; erratic earnings surprises make the next report a meaningful risk.
The multi-year view depends on continued KIMMTRAK growth, progress in clinical trials, and further improvement in earnings. Near term, a guidance cut or weaker economic data could weigh on the business outlook, while strong results and guidance from healthcare peers may support sector conditions.
IMCR’s operating progress supports an intact 1-to-3-year thesis, but uneven earnings, ongoing losses, and mixed, low-confidence valuation signals leave important execution risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Net income turns positive and stays above $0 |
| Net income improved from -$30M to $13M in the same period. |
| Improving |
| Net income falls below zero for two consecutive quarters after 2026-Q1 |
Net income: $-808,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: > 0 USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 2026-808,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Net loss for Q2 2026 was $0.8 million ($0.02 loss per share) compared to $10.3 million ($0.20 loss per share) for Q2 2025.” “Net income for Q1 2026 was $13.0 million compared to $5.0 million for Q1 2025.” Net income was $-0.808 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue grows to at least $107M by 2026-Q1 | A primary condition in IMMUNOCORE HOLDINGS PLC's published investment case. The stated target is >= $106.7M. | Intact | Revenue falls below $75M in any quarter after 2026-Q1 | Revenue: $115.927M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $106.7M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 2026115,927,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.35 → $-0.77 · observed estimates
$0.49B → $0.48B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.35 | $487,413,117 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.52 | $487,445,560 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.52 | $487,445,560 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.52 | $487,445,560 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.35 | $487,413,117 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.52 | $487,445,560 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.52 | $487,445,560 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.52 | $487,445,560 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.35 | $487,413,117 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.51 | $488,145,560 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.51 | $488,145,560 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.51 | $488,145,560 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.51 | $488,145,560 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.51 | $488,145,560 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.46 | $489,014,331 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.57 | $487,421,390 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.57 | $487,421,390 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.57 | $487,421,390 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.75 | $503,136,480 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.46 | $489,014,331 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.46 | $489,014,331 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.46 | $489,014,331 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.46 | $489,014,331 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.46 | $489,014,331 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.46 | $489,014,331 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.46 | $489,014,331 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.57 | $490,248,819 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.57 | $490,248,819 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.57 | $490,248,819 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.60 | $489,026,365 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.60 | $489,026,365 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.60 | $489,026,365 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.60 | $489,026,365 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.60 | $489,026,365 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.60 | $489,026,365 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.60 | $489,026,365 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.60 | $489,026,365 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.60 | $489,026,365 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.60 | $489,026,365 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.60 | $489,026,365 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.60 | $489,026,365 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.60 | $489,026,365 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.60 | $489,026,365 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.60 | $489,026,365 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.60 | $489,026,365 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.60 | $489,026,365 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.60 | $489,026,365 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.60 | $489,171,148 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.60 | $489,171,148 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.60 | $489,171,148 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.60 | $489,171,148 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.60 | $489,171,148 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.60 | $489,171,148 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.60 | $489,171,148 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.60 | $489,171,148 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.60 | $489,171,148 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.60 | $489,171,148 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.60 | $489,171,148 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.60 | $489,171,148 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.60 | $489,171,148 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.60 | $489,171,148 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.60 | $489,171,148 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.60 | $489,171,148 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.60 | $489,171,148 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.60 | $489,171,148 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.60 | $489,171,148 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.60 | $489,171,148 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.60 | $489,171,148 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.59 | $488,953,544 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.59 | $488,953,544 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.59 | $488,953,544 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.59 | $488,953,544 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.59 | $488,953,544 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.59 | $488,953,544 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.59 | $488,953,544 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.59 | $488,953,544 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.59 | $488,953,544 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.59 | $488,953,544 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.59 | $488,953,544 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.59 | $488,953,544 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.59 | $488,953,544 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.59 | $488,953,544 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.59 | $488,953,544 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.59 | $488,953,544 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.59 | $488,953,544 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.59 | $488,953,544 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.59 | $488,953,544 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.59 | $488,953,544 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.59 | $488,953,544 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.59 | $488,953,544 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.60 | $488,953,544 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.60 | $488,953,544 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.60 | $488,953,544 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.60 | $488,953,544 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.60 | $488,953,544 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.60 | $489,150,405 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.60 | $489,150,405 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.61 | $489,150,405 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.61 | $489,150,405 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.77 | $482,051,606 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.77 | $482,051,606 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.77 | $482,051,606 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.77 | $482,051,606 | 9 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.