IMMUNOCORE HOLDINGS PLC (IMCR)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$36.13-3.83%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · IMCR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -68.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 10.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 79.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 399 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
IMCR — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-06
of this Current Report on 8-K, including Exhibits 99.1 hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any of the Company’s filings under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the date hereof, regardless of any general inc…
Why it matters: A drop in net income may show higher costs or slower revenue growth. This can lower investor trust.
Worry ifQ2 2026 net income exceeds $10 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 net income falls below $10 million.
Why it matters: New survival data could help KIMMTRAK's market position and boost future sales.
Supportive ifNew five-year survival data will be shared at a big conference.
Worry ifData does not show much improvement over earlier results.
Why it matters: Topline data will show how well KIMMTRAK works for advanced melanoma.
Watch forThe TEBE-AM trial shows good overall survival results.
Also watch forTopline data from the TEBE-AM trial shows no big change in overall survival.
Why it matters: Updates on cash flow will show financial health and ability to fund trials.
Watch forCash flow from operations shows positive growth from earlier quarters.
Also watch forCash flow from operations drops or stays the same from earlier quarters.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$155 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $367 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,090 loss on $10,000 · 30.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Another strong earnings report would boost investor trust. It would also show good management.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings report beats analyst expectations. This confirms that management is doing well.
Worry ifQ2 earnings report does not meet analyst expectations. This raises worries about growth.
Why it matters: Completing enrollment shows progress. It helps in making treatments for advanced skin cancer.
Supportive ifEnrollment reaches the target of 540 patients in the TEBE-AM trial.
Worry ifEnrollment fails to complete by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Faster sector growth could help Immunocore do better.
Watch forSector revenue growth speeds up above 10%. This shows a good trend.
Also watch forSector revenue growth slows below 8%. This suggests ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: Good data could help use brenetafusp for more cancers, boosting the pipeline.
Supportive ifPhase 1/2 data from brenetafusp trials is presented in the second half of 2026.
Worry ifData shows disappointing results or is not presented as planned.
Why it matters: Topline data could prove KIMMTRAK works for advanced skin cancer.
Supportive ifTopline data from the TEBE-AM trial is released by the end of 2026.
Worry ifData release is delayed beyond the expected timeline.
Why it matters: Data from this trial could change KIMMTRAK's place in melanoma treatments.
Watch forData from the PRISM-MEL-301 trial shows a big benefit for overall survival.
Also watch forData from the PRISM-MEL-301 trial shows no big benefit for overall survival.
Why it matters: Revenue growth shows strong demand for KIMMTRAK. This supports the health of the business.
Supportive ifKIMMTRAK revenue grows year-over-year by more than 15% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifKIMMTRAK revenue growth falls below 10% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow shows better financial health. It also helps with ongoing improvements.
Supportive ifQ2 cash flow from operations is positive. This confirms good cost management.
Worry ifQ2 cash flow from operations is still negative. This suggests financial problems continue.
Why it matters: Making a profit would show better operations. It would also be a big step for the company.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings report shows a profit. This confirms that management is improving operations.
Worry ifQ2 earnings report shows a loss. This points to problems in operations.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth would show that management's initiatives are working. It would also support the positive trend seen in recent quarters.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue grows over 40% compared to last year. This shows that management's growth plan works.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 30% year over year, suggesting a slowdown.