Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-27 · fmp
$3.90 → $3.90 · observed estimates
Ingles Markets, Inc. (IMKTA)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
$84.48-1.89%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.90 → 3.90 EPS · FY ending Sep 27, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for IMKTA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital expenditure near $140 million in fiscal 2025 | A supporting condition in Ingles Markets, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 140 million USD. | Broken | Capex falls below $120 million next fiscal year | Capital expenditures: $23.363M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 140 million USD. Target period ends 2025-09-30; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Aug 6, 202623,362,791 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-27 · fmp
$3.90 → $3.90 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 25, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a grocery retailer with a mildly favorable, but still fragile, long-term thesis. Management execution appears stable, and the recent signal improved from mixed to mildly favorable, though the evidence is based on a limited period.
The valuation evidence labels expectations as justified, with a low fragility tier and a small expectations gap. This suggests the market is not pricing in a broad combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence, but the snapshot does not provide peer comparisons to judge whether the shares are cheap, fair, or expensive.
Near term, recent results show progress: first-half fiscal 2026 net income and basic earnings per Class A share rose year over year, while third-quarter gross margin also improved. Expenses increased modestly, and earnings quality remains fragile; a guidance cut or continued weak jobs data could pressure results, while recent-quarter misses add caution.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on management sustaining margin improvement, growing earnings, and controlling expenses. A guidance cut or further job-market weakening would be negative, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector peers would support the sector backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the long-term thesis is intact but not secure: operating progress is visible, while fragile earnings quality and sensitivity to economic conditions remain key risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Ingles Markets keeps steady profits with EPS around $4.45 next year. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $4.4 next fiscal Q4 |
Diluted EPS: $1.36 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 4.45 USD per share. Target period ends 2025-09-27; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Aug 6, 20261.36 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stable leadership and improved capital allocation | The company has stable leadership improving capital use. | Improving | Leadership instability or capital allocation setbacks occur | Qualitative: 2 earnings beats, 1 routine board change, 1 director resignation Q1/Q2 2026 earnings beats; Egan-Jones supports new leadership; routine board changes; no executive instability. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth near 1.5% per year | A primary condition in Ingles Markets, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=1.5% YoY. | Broken | Revenue growth falls below 1% next year | Revenue growth: 1.64% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=1.5% YoY. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 6, 20261.641826 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.21B → $4.21B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | $3.90 | $4,207,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.90 | $4,207,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.90 | $4,207,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.90 | $4,207,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.90 | $4,207,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.90 | $4,207,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.90 | $4,207,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.90 | $4,207,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.90 | $4,207,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.90 | $4,207,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.90 | $4,207,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.90 | $4,207,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.90 | $4,207,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.90 | $4,207,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.90 | $4,207,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.90 | $4,207,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.90 | $4,207,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.90 | $4,207,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.90 | $4,207,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.90 | $4,207,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.90 | $4,207,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.90 | $4,207,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.90 | $4,207,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.90 | $4,207,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.90 | $4,207,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.90 | $4,207,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.90 | $4,207,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.90 | $4,207,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.90 | $4,207,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.90 | $4,207,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.90 | $4,207,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.90 | $4,207,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Monthly analyst history is unavailable.
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.