Ingles Markets, Inc. (IMKTA)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
$83.07+0.53%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · IMKTA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -8.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
IMKTA — officer change
Dated 2026-08-04
Director — Brenda S. Tudor: Resigned due to family health reasons.
Why it matters: A drop in net income shows possible problems with making money. This could hurt investor trust.
Worry ifQ3 net income falls below $25.9 million, the figure from Q3 2025.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income remains above $25.9 million.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift for Ingles in a maturing sector.
Supportive ifRevenue growth in the Consumer Staples sector exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it signals a positive shift in the consumer staples sector.
Supportive ifRevenue growth returns to above 5% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth stays below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: A big drop in sales may show problems in the market. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifQ2 net sales decline more than 2% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 net sales decline less than 2% year over year or show growth.
Why it matters: Keeping or improving the margin shows good cost control and pricing.
Supportive ifGross profit margin stays above 24% for Q3.
Worry ifGross profit margin falls below 24% for Q3.
Why it matters: Higher operating costs could reduce margins. This may lower net income.
Worry ifOperating costs are over $300 million in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifOperating costs stay at or below $298 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: If operating expenses rise faster than sales, it shows cost control problems. This could hurt profits.
Worry ifOperating expenses rise more than 5% compared to sales growth in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifOperating expenses grow slower than or equal to sales growth in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Strong sales growth helps management increase profits and earnings per share.
Supportive ifQ3 net sales growth exceeds 2% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 net sales growth falls below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: If operating costs rise too fast, it could hurt profits even with sales growth.
Worry ifOperating and administrative costs go up more than 3% each year.
Less concerning ifOperating and administrative costs go up less than 2% each year.
Why it matters: Reopening stores would boost sales and make it easier for customers to shop.
Supportive ifAt least one of the three closed stores reopens by the end of 2026.
Worry ifAll three stores remain closed beyond 2026.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows smart spending. This helps long-term growth.
Watch forCapital spending for fiscal 2026 is between $120 million and $130 million.
Also watch forCapital spending is over $130 million or under $120 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$108 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $268 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,537 loss on $10,000 · 15.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.