Ingles Markets, Inc. (IMKTA)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
$86.11+2.81%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · IMKTA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -4.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -12.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers
IMKTA — officer change
Dated 2026-08-04
Director — Brenda S. Tudor: Resigned due to family health reasons.
Why it matters: Ingles set a $120 million to $130 million spending range. Spending above it could signal weaker control of planned costs.
Worry ifFiscal 2026 capital spending tops $130 million.
Less concerning ifFiscal 2026 capital spending lands between $120 million and $130 million.
Why it matters: Gross margin rose to 24.3% in Q3 from 23.7% a year earlier. Holding that level would support the margin gains seen so far.
Supportive ifThe next results show gross margin of at least 24.3%.
Worry ifThe next results show gross margin below 23.7%.
Why it matters: Q3 diluted earnings per Class A share slipped to $1.36 from $1.38. A further drop would put recent earnings growth under pressure.
Worry ifQ4 diluted earnings per Class A share are below $1.36 year over year.
Less concerning ifQ4 diluted earnings per Class A share are at least $1.38 year over year.
Why it matters: Three damaged stores were still closed on June 27. Reopening them would restore capacity. More delays would prolong the disruption.
Watch forThe company confirms that at least one of the three still-closed stores has reopened during 2026 or 2027.
Also watch forThe company reports that all three stores remain closed past 2027, or that a planned reopening is delayed beyond 2027.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$89 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $252 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,537 loss on $10,000 · 15.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Q3 sales grew about 1.6%, while Q2 sales fell 1.8%. Another sales decline would point to weaker demand or store activity.
Watch forQ4 net sales exceed the year-earlier quarter's $1.35 billion.
Also watch forQ4 net sales fall below the year-earlier quarter's $1.35 billion.