Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Inspired Entertainment, Inc. (INSE)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.50-6.91%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.50 → 0.36 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for INSE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Full year Adjusted EBITDA $112M-$118M | They expect adjusted EBITDA between $112M and $118M this year. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $110M in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “|| ● | Management reaffirms full year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA target range of $112 million to $118 million 2 .” ““We delivered sequential quarterly growth in both Revenue (+6%) and Adjusted EBITDA (+14%) and achieved a Company-record 45% Adjusted EBITDA margin 2 .” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a higher-risk business with an execution-led, multi-year thesis, not a proven earnings compounder, because the evidence classifies earnings quality as loss-making. The thesis is intact, though the signal recently shifted from mildly favorable to mixed, and management is making progress on margin and cash-generation goals.
The valuation is described as a premium to peers, with a negative expectations gap, meaning the market’s assumptions appear more demanding than the evidence supports. The priced-in signal is tagged justified, and no fragility gates fired, so the snapshot does not indicate concentrated valuation fragility.
Near term, recent results show sequential growth in Adjusted EBITDA and a company-record 45% margin in Q2, while management has reaffirmed its full-year Adjusted EBITDA target. Progress on free cash flow is less clear, and erratic earnings surprises plus smaller-company risk leave a meaningful chance of a miss at the next report. Over the multi-year view, execution against the earnings, margin, and cash-flow priorities is central; the evidence on overall financial performance remains neutral.
A guidance cut at the next call would be a meaningful negative, while continued delivery against management’s targets would support the existing thesis. Sector results also matter: stronger earnings and guidance from LVS, DKNG, and WYNN could sustain a helpful sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.
The 1-to-3-year thesis remains intact, but confidence is medium and the business still carries elevated execution risk. The central question is whether management can turn recent margin progress into sustained earnings and cash-flow delivery. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Adjusted EBITDA margin near 45% | They expect adjusted EBITDA between $112M and $118M this year. | Improving | Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 43% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA grows 20% YoY | They expect adjusted EBITDA between $112M and $118M this year. | Improving | Q1 2026 EBITDA growth falls below 15% YoY | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth stabilizes or improves | A supporting condition in Inspired Entertainment, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=0% YoY. | Broken | Revenue growth falls below -5% YoY in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.67 → $0.36 · observed estimates
$0.27B → $0.26B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.67 | $273,900,600 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.71 | $274,300,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.67 | $273,900,600 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.71 | $274,300,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.71 | $274,300,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.67 | $273,900,600 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.67 | $273,900,600 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.67 | $273,900,600 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.71 | $274,300,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.67 | $273,900,600 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.71 | $274,300,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.67 | $273,900,600 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.71 | $274,300,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.67 | $273,900,600 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.68 | $274,433,833 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.68 | $274,433,833 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.49 | $271,592,800 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.68 | $274,433,833 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.68 | $274,433,833 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.68 | $274,433,833 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.68 | $274,433,833 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.68 | $274,433,833 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.68 | $274,433,833 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.68 | $274,433,833 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.68 | $274,433,833 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.68 | $274,433,833 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.57 | $270,795,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.57 | $270,795,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.57 | $270,795,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.57 | $270,795,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.57 | $270,795,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.57 | $270,795,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.57 | $270,795,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.57 | $270,795,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.57 | $270,795,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.57 | $270,795,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.57 | $270,795,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.57 | $270,795,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.57 | $270,795,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.57 | $270,795,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.57 | $270,795,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.57 | $270,795,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.57 | $270,795,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.57 | $270,795,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.57 | $270,795,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.57 | $270,795,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.57 | $270,795,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.57 | $270,795,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.57 | $270,795,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.57 | $270,795,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.57 | $270,795,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.57 | $270,795,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.57 | $270,795,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.57 | $270,795,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.57 | $270,795,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.57 | $270,795,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.57 | $270,795,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.60 | $273,624,857 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.60 | $273,624,857 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.60 | $273,624,857 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.60 | $273,624,857 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.60 | $273,624,857 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.60 | $273,624,857 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.60 | $273,624,857 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.60 | $273,624,857 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.60 | $273,624,857 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.60 | $273,624,857 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.50 | $270,867,714 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.50 | $270,867,714 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.50 | $270,867,714 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.50 | $270,867,714 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.50 | $270,867,714 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.50 | $270,867,714 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.50 | $270,867,714 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.50 | $270,867,714 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.46 | $269,549,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.42 | $267,634,713 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.42 | $267,634,713 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.42 | $267,634,713 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.42 | $267,634,713 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.42 | $267,634,713 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.40 | $266,149,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.40 | $266,149,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.40 | $266,149,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.40 | $266,149,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.40 | $266,149,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.40 | $266,149,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.40 | $266,149,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.40 | $266,149,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.40 | $265,806,143 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.40 | $265,806,143 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.36 | $264,090,428 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.36 | $264,090,428 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.36 | $264,090,428 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.36 | $264,090,428 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.36 | $264,090,428 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.36 | $264,090,428 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.36 | $264,090,428 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.36 | $264,090,428 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.36 | $264,090,428 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.36 | $264,090,428 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.36 | $264,090,428 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.36 | $264,090,428 | 2 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.