Inspired Entertainment, Inc. (INSE)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
$5.590.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Recent financial performance slipped notably this past month, though still top-half.
Inspired aims to raise profit margin to 45% in 2026. They expect adjusted EBITDA between $112M and $118M this year. The company beat earnings in Q1 2026. New CFO may improve financial results.
The company lost money recently and missed earnings several times in 2025. Revenue is expected to shrink about 6% next year. The sector faces headwinds that may hurt growth.
The price is about 38% below our fair value near $12. Analysts expect revenue to fall about 6% next year. The market prices in a tough outlook.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $110M in FY26
Maintain and deliver the full year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA target range of $112 million to $118 million despite market and operational challenges.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story in the Consumer Discretionary sector. The current thesis state is cautious, as the company is loss-making but has stable management and some positive recent changes.
The market currently prices in a justified valuation, with a low expectations gap. However, INSE is trading at a premium compared to its peers, indicating that investors may have high hopes for its recovery.
Management is focused on achieving specific financial targets, including Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow conversion. However, there is a significant risk of an earnings miss in the near term, given the company's erratic earnings history.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to meet their financial targets and external factors such as inflation and sector performance. Positive earnings from sector leaders could provide a favorable backdrop for INSE.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats identified that could weaken the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA was $23.7 million in 2026-Q1 and $27.1 million in 2026-Q2, showing sequential growth. Management has consistently reaffirmed the $112M-$118M full year target, and the trajectory is delivering with sequential quarterly growth.
“Reiterating FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA target range of $112 million to $118 million.”
“Reiterating full year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA target range of $112 million to $118 million.”
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 43% in FY26
Expand profitability by increasing the Adjusted EBITDA margin target to up to 45% for full year 2026.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA margin improved from 41% in 2026-Q1 to a company-record 45% in 2026-Q2. Management increased the margin target to 45% and the actual margin achievement in Q2 matches this target, indicating delivery on this priority.
“Achieved a Company-record 45% Adjusted EBITDA Margin.”
“Increasing the Adjusted EBITDA margin target to up to 45%, from approximately 43%.”
Breaks if: Q1 2026 EBITDA growth falls below 15% YoY
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below -5% YoY in FY26
Over the next 1 to 3 years, INSE's performance will depend on its execution and broader economic conditions. Not investment advice.