Inspired Entertainment, Inc. (INSE)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
$5.590.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · INSE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -29.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -2.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 26.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 16 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
INSE — CFO transition
Dated 2026-05-18
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer — James Richardson: James Richardson resigned from his role as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.
Why it matters: The new tax could change how much money the company makes. Knowing its effects helps understand how the company can handle new rules.
Watch forQ2 results show revenue growth despite the new UK gaming tax.
Also watch forQ2 results show a decline in revenue due to the new UK gaming tax.
Why it matters: If they reach this margin, it shows they can make more money. It means they manage costs well.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA margin hits or exceeds 45%.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA margin is less than 41%.
Why it matters: The CFO transition could affect financial planning and execution. This is critical for achieving growth targets.
Worry ifNew CFO outlines a clear financial strategy that aligns with growth targets in the next earnings call.
Less concerning ifThere is no clear financial strategy after the CFO left, causing a delay.
Why it matters: The CFO change may affect how the company sets its financial goals. It is important for future performance.
Watch forNew CFO provides guidance that aligns with or improves upon previous targets.
Also watch forThe new CFO lowers financial guidance. This raises concerns about future performance.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$168 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $516 loss on $10,000 · 5.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,450 loss on $10,000 · 44.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: New customer launches can drive revenue growth and validate the SaaS model.
Supportive ifNew customers will use Inspired's Virtuals content through Playtech.
Worry ifNo new customer launches from the Playtech deal.
Why it matters: If revenue grows, it shows the consumer sector is recovering. This may boost investor trust in Inspired Entertainment.
Supportive ifConsumer sector revenue is growing again. It was negative for several quarters.
Worry ifConsumer sector revenue growth is still negative, showing that it is still shrinking.
Why it matters: New leaders can change the company and affect its financial results.
Watch forCFO Craig Wilson shares a clear plan that leads to better financial results.
Also watch forUnclear or bad news from the new CFO about financial plans.
Why it matters: Successful launches mean growth in new markets. It shows the company is expanding well.
Supportive ifThey launched new customers in the Alberta gaming market.
Worry ifNo new customer launches occur in Alberta by the end of Q3.
Why it matters: The CFO change may affect financial plans and investor trust. Watching this shows stability.
Worry ifManagement gives a good update on the CFO change and its effects on finances.
Less concerning ifMore bad news or doubt about the CFO change can hurt stock performance.
Why it matters: Paying off debt shows financial health. It shows a commitment to reduce debt.
Supportive ifMore debt repayments are announced, adding to the $23 million paid this year.
Worry ifNo new debt repayments are announced. Leverage has increased.
Why it matters: A smooth change can help the company's financial plans. It affects how investors feel and keeps operations running.
Watch forCraig Wilson leads the finance team well. There have been no big problems for three months.
Also watch forBig financial mistakes happen during the change period.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows the company is growing and making money. It proves management is effective.
Supportive ifFull year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA reported within the $112M-$118M range.
Worry ifFull year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA is below $112M.
Why it matters: Exceeding this target indicates strong cash generation. It supports the company's financial health and growth plans.
Supportive ifFree Cash Flow conversion reported above 20%.
Worry ifFree Cash Flow conversion reported below 20%.