Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. (INSP)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$63.08+1.51%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · INSP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -3.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 87 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
INSP — CEO transition
Dated 2026-07-24
Director — Michael H. Carrel: Appointment of Michael H. Carrel to the Board and various committees.
Why it matters: Resolving this uncertainty is key to revenue growth. It impacts how doctors bill for the Inspire V system.
Supportive ifA formal announcement will bring new coding rules. These rules will help payments for Inspire V cases.
Worry ifDelays or unclear information on coding and payments for Inspire V continue.
Why it matters: The new director's experience may change company choices and plans.
Watch forA new board member with industry experience has been announced.
Also watch forNo announcement of a new board member within the next quarter.
Why it matters: Reaching this goal would show recovery from recent revenue drops. It would support management's plan.
Supportive ifRevenue for the full year 2026 lands within the range of $835M to $875M.
Worry ifRevenue drops below $835M, showing ongoing growth problems.
Why it matters: Hitting this margin shows good cost control and efficiency. These are important for long-term growth.
Supportive ifAdjusted operating margin is at 4% or more for Q3.
Worry ifThe adjusted operating margin is under 4% for Q3.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$184 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $517 loss on $10,000 · 5.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,219 loss on $10,000 · 72.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Meeting this goal is key for investor trust. It shows management's growth plan during tough times.
Supportive ifReported Q3 revenue falls within the raised guidance range of $835M to $875M.
Worry ifQ3 revenue falls below the lower end of the guidance range.
Why it matters: If revenue grows again, it shows recovery from recent drops due to payment issues.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth reported above 1.6% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue continues to decline year over year.
Why it matters: Resolving these issues is key to restoring U.S. revenue growth. The company faces challenges that have led to a revenue decline.
Supportive ifManagement announces a fix in coding and payment for Inspire V.
Worry ifOngoing issues in coding and payment cause more revenue drops.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops below its median, it may signal broader issues in the healthcare sector.
Worry ifHealthcare sector revenue growth drops below 1% year over year.
Less concerning ifHealthcare sector revenue growth remains above 1% year over year.
Why it matters: Meeting or beating EPS goals shows good cost control and revenue. This boosts investor trust.
Supportive ifAdjusted diluted EPS reaches at least $0.07 in Q2.
Worry ifAdjusted diluted EPS falls below $0.07 in Q2.
Why it matters: Hitting revenue goals is key to rebuild investor trust after a drop in Q1.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue was over $204.6 million, showing growth towards the yearly goal of $825M to $875M.
Worry ifQ2 revenue is below $204.6 million, showing ongoing problems in reaching growth.