INTRUSION INC (INTZ)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$0.78-5.73%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · INTZ
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -62.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 63.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 126.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 68 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
INTZ — capital allocation
Dated 2026-09-03
by reference. The offering of shares of the Company’s common stock issued upon the exercise of such Warrants and underlying the New Warrants was undertaken pursuant to the exemption from registration provided in Section 4(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), and/or Rule 506(b) under Regulation D promulgated thereunder.
Why it matters: Getting more financing is important for operations and cash flow.
Supportive ifThe company has a new financing deal for over $3 million.
Worry ifNo new financing is secured and cash flow continues to decline.
Why it matters: High revenue growth shows strong demand and good work with VigilAigent.
Supportive ifQuarterly revenue growth is over 60% for two straight quarters.
Worry ifQuarterly revenue growth drops below 40% for two straight quarters.
Why it matters: The company must address the delisting notice to maintain its NASDAQ listing. This is crucial for investor confidence.
Worry ifA public announcement will confirm steps taken to fix the delisting notice.
Less concerning ifNo action or news about the delisting notice in the next quarter.
Why it matters: The success of the P.O.S.S.E Program can drive revenue growth and improve market position. Strong adoption signals effective product-market fit.
Supportive ifManagement says the P.O.S.S.E Program is growing quickly.
Worry ifLittle or no growth in adoption reported. This shows market problems.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$304 on $10,000 · ±3.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $853 loss on $10,000 · 8.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,087 loss on $10,000 · 70.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The program may affect cash flow. It can also impact investor confidence.
Watch forThe warrant inducement program finished well. Investors had good things to say.
Also watch forNegative feedback or failure to complete the program can lead to cash flow concerns.
Why it matters: Growth from the VigilAigent deal is important for Intrusion's plans to increase revenue.
Supportive ifYearly revenue from VigilAigent is over $3.5 million six months after the deal.
Worry ifYearly revenue from VigilAigent is under $3 million after six months.
Why it matters: Winning a government contract could raise revenue and boost market trust.
Supportive ifA government contract worth over $1 million was announced.
Worry ifNo government contract awards are announced within the next quarter.
Why it matters: Finding and using cost savings is key. It helps improve profits and cash flow.
Supportive ifManagement says they saved at least $1 million from buying VigilAigent.
Worry ifNo cost savings reported. This shows there may be integration problems.
Why it matters: Getting more financing is important for the company. It affects cash flow and stability.
Supportive ifA press release announcing new financing of at least $2 million.
Worry ifNo new financing secured by the next earnings date.
Why it matters: Cost savings help make more money. They also support the VigilAigent purchase.
Supportive ifManagement says cost savings will be over $3 million next quarter.
Worry ifCost synergies reported are less than $1 million within the next quarter.
Why it matters: The company received a notice for falling below the $1.00 minimum bid price. This affects its ability to remain listed on NASDAQ.
Worry ifThe company raises its stock price above $1.00 for 30 trading days in a row.
Less concerning ifThe stock price stays below $1.00 for a long time. This may lead to delisting.
Why it matters: Improved revenue trends in Q2 would signal recovery from the recent decline.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue is over $1 million. This shows a recovery from the last quarter's drop.
Worry ifQ2 revenue remains below $0.9 million, continuing the downward trend.
Why it matters: This contract is key for making money again. It also helps keep the business stable.
Watch forAward announcement for the key U.S. government contract, leading to revenue recognition.
Also watch forDelays in the contract award hurt revenue projections.
Why it matters: Growing revenue shows strong demand and good business plans are working.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 64% sequentially from the previous quarter.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is below 64% or declines.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss shows better finances and steps toward making money.
Supportive ifNet loss for Q3 is less than $2.6 million.
Worry ifNet loss for Q3 is greater than $2.6 million.