Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Innoviva, Inc. (INVA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$19.24-9.50%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.26 → 2.26 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for INVA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Net income remains above $160 million annually | Net income rose from $20M to $186M in recent quarters. | Intact | Net income falls below $20 million in any quarter | Net income: $-73.888M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $160 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026-73,888,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-focused healthcare business with a moderate level of risk, rather than a clear turnaround story. The long-term thesis is intact: recent financial performance remains in the top half of its industry, while management continues to pursue product growth.
The evidence describes INVA as cheap versus peers, although its valuation score has risen recently. The market’s expectations appear broadly justified, with a modest negative expectations gap; the evidence does not point to a large mismatch between expectations and execution.
Near term, IST U.S. product sales have grown, and management remains on track with its 2026 sales goal. NUZOLVENCE commercialization is planned for the second half of 2026, but it has not yet produced reported revenue. Execution remains the main concern, given uneven earnings surprises and the risk of a guidance cut.
The multi-year view depends on sustained IST sales growth and successful commercialization of NUZOLVENCE. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs growth could weigh on the business outlook, while continued strength from healthcare peers would support sector momentum.
As of 2026-10-31, INVA’s long-term thesis is intact, with strong recent performance and a relatively inexpensive valuation versus peers offset by execution and economic risks. The next important evidence points are progress on product growth and delivery of management’s stated priorities. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company plans to launch NUZOLVENCE in late 2026. |
| Intact |
| NUZOLVENCE launch delayed beyond 2026 or fails to gain market traction |
Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• The Company remains on track to make NUZOLVENCE ® available to patients in the second half of 2026.” “• The Company plans to commercialize NUZOLVENCE ® in the second half of 2026, either in collaboration with a commercialization partner or independently.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Total revenue grows to at least $440 million in FY26 | A primary condition in Innoviva, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $440 million. | Broken | Total revenue falls below $296 million in FY25 | Revenue: $106.12M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $440 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026106,120,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.21 → $2.26 · observed estimates
$0.49B → $0.49B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.21 | $486,064,400 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.24 | $483,980,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.21 | $486,064,400 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.24 | $483,980,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.24 | $483,980,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.21 | $486,064,400 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.21 | $486,064,400 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.21 | $486,064,400 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.24 | $483,980,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.21 | $486,064,400 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.21 | $486,064,400 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.21 | $486,064,400 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.21 | $486,064,400 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.21 | $486,064,400 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.35 | $498,380,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.21 | $490,697,400 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.21 | $490,697,400 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.21 | $490,697,400 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.35 | $498,380,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.35 | $498,380,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.35 | $498,380,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.35 | $498,380,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.35 | $498,380,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.35 | $498,380,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.35 | $498,380,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.35 | $498,380,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.31 | $487,229,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.31 | $487,229,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.31 | $487,236,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.31 | $487,236,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.31 | $487,236,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.31 | $487,236,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.31 | $487,236,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.31 | $487,236,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.31 | $487,236,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.31 | $487,236,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.31 | $487,236,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.31 | $487,236,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.31 | $487,236,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.31 | $487,236,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.31 | $487,236,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.31 | $487,236,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.31 | $487,236,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.31 | $487,236,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.31 | $487,236,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.31 | $487,236,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.31 | $487,236,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.31 | $487,236,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.31 | $487,236,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.31 | $487,236,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.31 | $487,236,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.31 | $487,236,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.31 | $487,236,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.31 | $487,236,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.31 | $487,236,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.31 | $487,236,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.31 | $487,236,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.31 | $487,236,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.31 | $487,236,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.31 | $487,236,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.31 | $487,236,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-05 | $2.26 | $490,010,200 | 4 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.